今年全球可再生能源的資本投資將達(dá)到近5000億美元  

今年可能是可再生能源投資超過(guò)上游油氣投資的第一年  

在一些地方，可再生能源項(xiàng)目的收支平衡時(shí)間已降至一年以下  

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)10月17日?qǐng)?bào)道，挪威能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的最新研究結(jié)果顯示，高現(xiàn)貨電價(jià)——尤其是在歐洲的高現(xiàn)貨電價(jià)——正在改變公用事業(yè)領(lǐng)域的風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能投資，這是因?yàn)椴坏揭荒甑臐撛诨貓?bào)期可能會(huì)引發(fā)純粹基于項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)的可再生資產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)競(jìng)賽。根據(jù)Rystad的研究和分析結(jié)果，可再生能源領(lǐng)域的資本投資也顯著增加，今年將達(dá)到4940億美元，超過(guò)上游油氣行業(yè)的4460億美元。這是可再生能源投資首次超過(guò)石油和天然氣投資。

到目前為止，可再生能源項(xiàng)目——太陽(yáng)能光伏項(xiàng)目和風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目——的回報(bào)一直不引人注目，主要依靠補(bǔ)貼使項(xiàng)目越過(guò)成本基準(zhǔn)。最近的大宗商品和供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題造成的成本壓力本應(yīng)使情況變得更糟，因?yàn)樗鼈兡孓D(zhuǎn)了該行業(yè)多年來(lái)單位成本的快速提高。然而，Rystad的分析研究結(jié)果顯示，目前德國(guó)、法國(guó)、意大利和英國(guó)的現(xiàn)貨電力價(jià)格都將帶來(lái)12個(gè)月或不到12個(gè)月的資金周期回報(bào)。

Rystad高級(jí)副總裁邁克爾·薩里奇表示：“由于各國(guó)爭(zhēng)相獲得安全、廉價(jià)的能源，今年對(duì)可再生能源的資本投資將首次超過(guò)石油和天然氣。由于可再生能源項(xiàng)目在某些情況下的回報(bào)時(shí)間縮短至不到一年，對(duì)可再生能源的資本投資可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步增加?！?/p>

為了理解電力價(jià)格飆升對(duì)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，在德國(guó)做了一個(gè)250兆瓦的通用太陽(yáng)能光伏資產(chǎn)模型。假設(shè)長(zhǎng)期電價(jià)為50歐元/兆瓦時(shí)(49美元/兆瓦時(shí))，預(yù)期稅后回報(bào)率約為6%，回收期為11年。然后假設(shè)在啟動(dòng)年電力價(jià)格較高，在第2年和第3年價(jià)格一致下降，直到回到長(zhǎng)期假設(shè)。350歐元或以上/兆瓦時(shí)電力價(jià)格只會(huì)導(dǎo)致1年的回收期，而大約180歐元/兆瓦時(shí)(歐盟委員會(huì)提議的價(jià)格門(mén)檻)的電力價(jià)格會(huì)使回收期減半至5-6年。 但在法國(guó)、意大利和英國(guó)，350歐元/兆瓦時(shí)的電價(jià)也會(huì)在12個(gè)月內(nèi)產(chǎn)生回報(bào)。  

并不是所有的可再生能源開(kāi)發(fā)商都能在相同程度上受益。

考慮到上述國(guó)家8月份的平均現(xiàn)貨電力價(jià)格均超過(guò)400歐元/兆瓦時(shí)，公用事業(yè)規(guī)模的可再生能源的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益似乎令人信服?？稍偕茉聪鄬?duì)較低的運(yùn)營(yíng)成本加強(qiáng)了他們的理由，因?yàn)榧词归L(zhǎng)期電價(jià)大幅下降，回報(bào)也將保持強(qiáng)勁。 

從歷史上看，項(xiàng)目需要確定的現(xiàn)金流來(lái)獲得資金，通常是通過(guò)電價(jià)和/或電力購(gòu)買(mǎi)協(xié)議(PPAs)。 盡管這些機(jī)制保護(hù)項(xiàng)目免受電力價(jià)格下跌的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但這確實(shí)意味著有限或完全不受現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)高電力價(jià)格的影響。事實(shí)上，由于這個(gè)原因，大多數(shù)歐洲太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能項(xiàng)目并沒(méi)有從當(dāng)前的高電力價(jià)格中受益。然而，盡管在可再生能源項(xiàng)目開(kāi)始建設(shè)之前，清除監(jiān)管和其他障礙可能需要數(shù)年時(shí)間，但如果人們認(rèn)為高電力價(jià)格將持續(xù)下去，開(kāi)發(fā)商和融資方都應(yīng)該努力讓項(xiàng)目盡快投產(chǎn)，并最大限度地承擔(dān)批發(fā)價(jià)格的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——因?yàn)橐坏┣捌诔杀镜玫绞栈兀词闺娏r(jià)格回落到接近歷史水平的水平，回報(bào)也將非常有吸引力。

此外，Rystad的研究和分析結(jié)果顯示，投入可再生能源的資金首次超過(guò)上游油氣(包括待重新開(kāi)發(fā)和未開(kāi)發(fā)，但不包括勘探)。 如果高電價(jià)確實(shí)持續(xù)下去，并且開(kāi)發(fā)商迅速將新產(chǎn)能投入使用，那么誘人的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益甚至可能加速歐洲可再生能源行業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Renewable Investments Could Outstrip Upstream Oil And Gas In 2022

·     Capital investment in renewables is set to reach nearly $500 billion in 2022.

·     This year could be the first year that renewable investment overtakes upstream oil and gas investment. 

·     The break-even time on renewable energy projects has fallen to under one year in some places.

High spot electricity prices, particularly in Europe, are changing the utility wind and solar investment narrative as potential payback periods of under a year could start a race to develop renewable assets purely based on project economics, Rystad Energy research shows. Capital investments in renewables have also increased significantly and are set to reach $494 billion in 2022, outstripping upstream oil and gas at $446 billion for the year, according to Rystad Energy research. This is the first time that investment in renewables is set to be higher than for oil and gas.

Up until now, returns on renewable energy projects (solar PV and wind) have been unspectacular, primarily relying on subsidies to get projects over the line. Cost pressures due to recent commodity and supply chain issues should have made matters worse as they have reversed years of rapid unit cost improvements in the sector. However, Rystad Energy analysis demonstrates current spot prices in Germany, France, Italy, and the UK would all result in paybacks of 12 months or less.

“Capital investments in renewables are set to outstrip oil and gas for the first time this year as countries scramble to source secure and affordable energy. Investments into renewables are likely to increase further moving forward as renewable project payback times shorten to less than a year in some cases,“ says Michael Sarich, senior vice president, Rystad Energy.

To understand the impact of soaring prices on project economics, a generic 250 megawatts (MW) solar PV asset has been modelled in Germany in the below graph. Assuming a long-term electricity price of €50/MWh ($49/MWh), the expected post tax return is approximately 6% with a payback period of 11 years. Higher prices were then assumed in the start-up year, dropping uniformly in years 2 and 3 until returning to the long-term assumption. As demonstrated below, a price of €350/ MWh or above results in a payback period of only one year while a price of approximately €180 – the European Commission’s proposed price threshold – halves the payback to 5-6 years. The data shown is for Germany, however €350/ MWh will also result in a payback within 12 months in France, Italy, and the UK.

Not all renewable developers will benefit to the same extent

Considering the average monthly spot prices for August in the countries mentioned were all well over €400/ MWh, the economics for utility scale renewables appear to be compelling. The relatively low operating costs of renewables strengthens their case as the returns would remain robust even if the long-term power prices were to drop significantly.

Historically, projects have required certainty of cashflows to secure funding, often via feed in tariffs and/or power purchase agreements (PPAs). Although these mechanisms protect the project from downside price risk, it does mean limited or no exposure to high spot market prices. In fact, most European solar and wind projects are not benefitting from the current high prices for this reason. However, while it can also take years to clear regulatory and other hurdles before construction can begin on a renewables project, if one believes high prices are here to stay, developers and financiers alike should be trying to get projects up and running as quickly as possible and with maximum exposure to wholesale prices – as once the up-front costs are recouped, returns will be very attractive even if prices drop back close to historical levels.

In addition, our research and analysis show more capital is being pumped into renewables than upstream oil and gas (including brownfield and greenfield but excluding exploration) for the first time. If high prices are indeed here to stay and developers bring new capacity online quickly, the compelling economics might even hasten Europe’s renewable sector growth.