據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年10月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，《天然氣情報(bào)》（NGL）援引出席墨西哥灣沿岸能源論壇的專家的話報(bào)道稱，盡管美國(guó)液化天然氣（LNG）有望實(shí)現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)，但由于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃遭遇限制，明年美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣需求增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)放緩。

美國(guó)液化天然氣中心執(zhí)行董事Charlie Riedl告訴NGI，盡管受到地緣政治沖突的影響，美國(guó)LNG的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)有望在本十年內(nèi)加速，但基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和管道的擴(kuò)建將是“關(guān)鍵任務(wù)”，重點(diǎn)是將二疊盆地和海恩斯維爾盆地與LNG出口終端連接起來(lái)。

專家指出，雖然新項(xiàng)目正在進(jìn)行中，但投產(chǎn)時(shí)間將出現(xiàn)滯后。

美國(guó)自由港LNG出口設(shè)施在6月發(fā)生火災(zāi)后，至少要關(guān)閉到11月初。當(dāng)它重新啟動(dòng)時(shí)，每天將向市場(chǎng)返回大約20億立方英尺LNG。然而，除此之外，專家告訴NGI，兩年內(nèi)美國(guó)不會(huì)有其它新的LNG出口能力擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃，埃克森美孚公司與卡塔爾能源公司合作的Golden Pass LNG計(jì)劃要到2024年才能啟動(dòng)。 

目前，由于LNG的擴(kuò)張趕上長(zhǎng)期前景，市場(chǎng)正準(zhǔn)備迎來(lái)輕微的喘息。  

Easy Daley Analytics公司的Rob Wilson在為期三天的論壇間隙對(duì)NGI表示，墨西哥灣沿岸的LNG出口能力將在2025年之前逐步增加，但由于新項(xiàng)目落后于市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)，短期擴(kuò)張?jiān)鲩L(zhǎng)放緩可能會(huì)影響天然氣生產(chǎn)商。 

Wilson對(duì)NGI表示，“我認(rèn)為庫(kù)存將在明年3月和4月增加，我們將看到庫(kù)存水平顯著高于歷史平均水平”。

Wilson預(yù)測(cè)，到2023年，盡管來(lái)自亞洲和歐洲的需求將繼續(xù)保持高水平，但美國(guó)天然氣生產(chǎn)商將看到更低的價(jià)格，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)將等待需求趕上供應(yīng)。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Experts: U.S. LNG Growth Could Slow Next Year

While American LNG is poised for long-term growth, next year could see a slowing of domestic natural gas demand due as infrastructure and expansion plans experience limitations, Natural Gas Intelligence reports, citing experts on the sidelines of a Gulf Coast energy forum. 

Central for Liquefied Natural Gas (CLNG) executive director Charlie Riedl told NGI that while LNG dynamics are expected to accelerate this decade, buoyed by the war, facility and pipeline expansion will be “mission critical”, with a focus on connecting the Permian Basin and the Haynesville Basin to LNG export terminals. 

Experts note that while new projects are underway, the timing will see a lag. 

The Freeport LNG export facility continues to be out until at least early November after a fire in June. When it does restart, it would return some 2 billion cubic feet per day to the market. Aside from that, however, experts told NGI that no other expansions of export capability are on the books for two years, with Exxon’s Golden Pass LNG–in cooperation with QatarEnergy–not slated for initial startup until 2024. 

Right now, the market is gearing up for a slight pause as LNG expansion catches up with the longer-term prospects here. 

Speaking on the sidelines of the three-day forum, Easy Daley Analytics’ Rob Wilson told NGI that Gulf Coast LNG export capacity is set to increase gradually through 2025, but that slower near-term expansion growth could impact natural gas producers as new projects lag behind market dynamics. 

“I think it will be March and April, when storage ramps up, and we see levels reach significantly above historical averages,” Wilson told NGI.

For 2023, Wilson predicts that while demand from Asia and Europe will continue to be high, U.S. natural gas producers will see lower prices as the market waits for demand to catch up with supply.