據油價網2022年10月5日報道，由于太陽能光伏設備制造商和電池制造商面臨不斷攀升的成本，歐洲各地創(chuàng)紀錄的電價正在破壞歐洲大陸建立可靠的低碳供應鏈和實現脫碳目標的努力。

挪威著名能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的最新研究結果顯示，除非電力價格迅速恢復正常水平，否則35吉瓦的太陽能光伏生產能力和超過2000吉瓦時的電池生產能力可能會被封存。 

由于經營成本上升，這些生產過程的能源密集型性質導致一些運營商臨時關閉或放棄生產設施。 除非價格很快好轉，否則歐洲通過提高可再生能源發(fā)電裝機容量和電動汽車(EV)使用率來減少對進口化石燃料依賴的計劃可能會破產。 

Rystad能源服務研究主管奧登· 馬丁森說，高電價不僅對歐洲的脫碳努力構成重大威脅，還可能導致對海外制造業(yè)的依賴增加，這是歐盟各國政府都急于避免的。如果歐洲大陸要堅持包括歐盟REPowerEU能源計劃在內的目標，建立一個可靠的國內低碳供應鏈是至關重要的，但就目前情況來看，這是非常危險的。

最近幾周，由于核電站和水電站的意外停運、酷暑天氣對冷卻設備的需求飆升以及天然氣供應減少，歐洲的電價已升至前所未有的水平。

在歐洲太陽能和電池制造能力領先的德國，每日平均現貨電價已超過每兆瓦時595美元，而法國的現貨電價已超過每兆瓦時695美元。在高峰時段，歐洲的電價已飆升至每兆瓦時1490美元，這對包括工業(yè)部門在內的消費者來說是不可持續(xù)的水平。盡管自8月份的創(chuàng)紀錄高點以來，電價已大幅回落，但電價仍維持在每兆瓦時300至400美元區(qū)間，比能源危機前的正常水平高出許多倍。 

Rystad補充說，歐洲人近幾年來受益于可靠和負擔得起的電力。低碳制造商也將他們的產能建設建立在每兆瓦時50美元左右的穩(wěn)定電價上。由于亞洲等其他地區(qū)的制造商享受著較低的電力投入費用，相比之下，歐洲制造商正變得越來越沒有競爭力。  

盡管歐洲的太陽能生產能力在全球范圍內相對較弱，僅占總可再生能源產能的2%，但任何項目的關閉或放棄都將產生嚴重的長期負面影響。歐盟(EU)的目標是到2025年前達到20吉瓦的產能，盡管目前計劃有35吉瓦的項目，但許多項目尚未獲得資金，如果高電價持續(xù)下去，這些項目將面臨失敗的風險。

在挪威，電力成本上漲了6倍，導致能源密集型的太陽能電池板制造業(yè)考慮在今年剩余時間內關閉。 鑒于歐洲天然氣短缺預計將持續(xù)數年，且電價將持續(xù)高企，為太陽能制造工廠吸引融資和投資可能具有挑戰(zhàn)性。 

電池  

電池制造在電動汽車和電池存儲供應鏈中至關重要，它的能源密集型甚至超過太陽能制造業(yè)，而歐洲是全球主要參與者。歐盟目前擁有約550吉瓦時的產能，占全球運營產能的27%。已宣布的正在開發(fā)中的項目將顯著提高總產能，總產能將提高到2.7太瓦時，使歐盟成為全球領導者。然而，現在這些項目都面臨風險，汽車制造和電池存儲部門可能難以獲得歐洲制造的電池。

由于能源成本上升和需要額外融資，英倫伏特在英國布萊思的標志性千兆電池工廠(該工廠將為歐洲大陸的制造能力增加30兆瓦時)已被推遲至2025年年中。由于亞洲制造商享受著低得多的電價，歐洲制造商迅速擴大生產規(guī)模的計劃可能會受到挑戰(zhàn)。根據電力價格持續(xù)上漲的時間，歐洲電動汽車的采用率可能會放緩。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

European Renewable Energy Supply Chain Under Threat

Record-breaking electricity prices across Europe are damaging the continent’s attempts to build a reliable low-carbon supply chain and reach its decarbonization targets, as solar and battery manufacturers face mounting costs.

Rystad Energy research shows that 35 GW of solar PV manufacturing and more than 2,000 GWh of battery cell manufacturing capacity could be mothballed unless power prices quickly return to normal levels.

The energy-intensive nature of these manufacturing processes is leading some operators to temporarily close or abandon production facilities as the cost of doing business escalates. Unless prices turn around soon, Europe’s plans to cut dependence on imported fossil fuels by boosting installed renewable generation capacity and electric vehicle (EV) usage could be derailed.

“High power prices not only pose a significant threat to European decarbonization efforts but could also result in increased reliance on overseas manufacturing, something governments are eager to avoid. Building a reliable domestic low-carbon supply chain is essential if the continent is going to stick to its goals, including the REPowerEU plan, but as things stand, that is in serious jeopardy,” Audun Martinsen, Rystad Energy’s head of energy service research, said.

European electricity prices have risen to unprecedented levels in recent weeks due to unplanned nuclear and hydropower plant outages, soaring demand for cooling during an oppressive summer heatwave, and reduced gas deliveries.

Daily average spot power prices in Germany – Europe’s leader in solar and battery cell manufacturing capacity – have surpassed $595 per MWh, while rates in France have topped $695 per MWh. During peak hours, European power prices have spiked to $1,490 per MWh, unsustainable levels for consumers, including the industrial sector. Although prices have retreated significantly since these record highs in August, rates remain in the $300 to $400 range, many multiples above pre-energy crisis norms.

Rystad added that Europeans have benefited from reliable and affordable electricity in recent years. Low-carbon manufacturers have also predicated their build-up of production capacity on stable power prices of around $50 per MWh. With manufacturers in other regions, such as Asia, enjoying lower electricity input tariffs, European producers are becoming increasingly uncompetitive by comparison.

Although Europe’s solar manufacturing capacity is relatively modest on a global scale – making up only 2% of total capacity – any shutdowns or abandonment of projects would have significant long-term negative consequences. The European Union (EU) has targeted 20 GW of production capacity by 2025, and although 35 GW of projects is currently planned, many have not secured funding, increasing the risk that these projects will fall through if high power prices continue.

In Norway, electricity costs have risen six-fold, leading the energy-intensive solar panel manufacturing industry to consider shutting down for the remainder of 2022. With Europe expected to be short on gas for several years and high electricity prices to continue as a result, attracting financing and investment for solar manufacturing plants could prove challenging.

Battery cells

Battery cell manufacturing – crucial in the EV and battery storage supply chain – is even more energy intensive than solar manufacturing, and Europe is a major global player. The EU currently boasts about 550 GWh of capacity, representing 27% of global operational capacity. Announced projects under development are set to boost that total significantly, increasing capacity to 2.7 terawatt-hours, positioning the EU as a global leader. However, those are now at risk, and the car manufacturing and battery storage sectors could struggle to source European-made batteries as a result.

Britishvolt’s signature giga-sized battery factory in Blyth in the UK – which would add 30 GWh to the continent’s manufacturing capabilities – has already been delayed to mid-2025 due to rising energy costs and the need for additional fundraising. With Asian manufacturers enjoying much lower power prices, European manufacturers’ plans to rapidly scale production could be challenged. Depending on how long elevated power prices continue, a slowdown in EV adoption in Europe could follow.