據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶10月7日報(bào)道，雷斯塔能源在一份新的市場報(bào)告中稱，在歐佩克+決定從11月開始削減200萬桶/天產(chǎn)量之后，布倫特原油很可能在今年年底達(dá)到每桶100美元。

雷斯塔能源高級副總裁豪爾赫·萊昂（Jorge Leon）在報(bào)告中表示，我們相信，宣布的該措施將對價(jià)格產(chǎn)生重大影響。并補(bǔ)充道，到今年12月，布倫特原油價(jià)格將超過100美元/桶，高于我們之前預(yù)測的89美元/桶。

Leon在報(bào)告中概述，在OPEC+宣布減產(chǎn)后，布倫特原油即月價(jià)格達(dá)到了94美元/桶，而上周五為88美元/桶。

隨著今年2月地緣政治沖突升級，石油價(jià)格多年來首次突破每桶100美元。自那以來，油價(jià)在2022年多次收于每桶逾120美元，盡管布倫特原油從6月的逾123美元/桶跌至9月底的略高于84美元/桶。在撰寫本文時(shí)，布倫特原油的交易價(jià)格為每桶95.18美元。

惠譽(yù)解決方案公司目前預(yù)測，2022年布倫特原油均價(jià)將達(dá)到105美元/桶，而彭博共識預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油均價(jià)將達(dá)到101.7美元/桶，美國能源情報(bào)署最新的短期能源展望預(yù)測，2022年布倫特現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)將達(dá)到104.21美元/桶。

有效的減產(chǎn)范圍120萬桶/天

在雷斯塔的最新市場報(bào)告中，Leon強(qiáng)調(diào)，雷斯塔認(rèn)為OPEC+將無法實(shí)現(xiàn)全面減產(chǎn)，但有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)120萬桶/天的有效減產(chǎn)，因?yàn)?3個(gè)成員國中有14個(gè)國家目前產(chǎn)量不足，占該組織9月份產(chǎn)量的39%，因此新的配額將不具約束力。

Leon表示，例如，產(chǎn)能大國的產(chǎn)量約為970萬桶/天，但他們的新配額為1050萬桶/天。

Leon預(yù)測，2022年11月預(yù)計(jì)每天有效減產(chǎn)120萬桶，主要由沙特阿拉伯（每天減少52萬桶）、伊拉克（每天減少22萬桶），阿聯(lián)酋（每天減少15萬桶）和科威特（每天減少13.5萬桶）承擔(dān)。據(jù)Leon稱，哈薩克斯坦、阿爾及利亞、阿曼、加蓬和南蘇丹也將減產(chǎn)。

Leon還指出，OPEC+在其官方新聞稿中概述了兩項(xiàng)非產(chǎn)量的政策轉(zhuǎn)變，他表示，這“也將對石油市場產(chǎn)生相當(dāng)大的影響”。一是《合作宣言》延期至2023年底。在OPEC+所稱的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景“不確定”以及石油市場需要長期指導(dǎo)的情況下，這意味著未來一年油價(jià)可能會穩(wěn)固。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Brent Likely to Hit $100 Per Barrel by Year End

Brent is likely to hit $100 per barrel by the end of the year following OPEC+’s move to cut two million barrels per day from November, a new market note from Rystad Energy has outlined.

“We believe that the price impact of the announced measures will be significant,” Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon said in the note.

“By December this year Brent would reach over $100 per barrel, up from our earlier call for $89 per barrel,” Leon added.

In the note, Leon outlined that ICE Brent Front Month reached $94 per barrel right after the OPEC+ announcement, compared to $88 per barrel last Friday.

Oil soared past $100 per barrel for the first time in years as the war in February. It has since closed above $120 per barrel on several occasions in 2022, although Brent dropped from over $123 per barrel in June to just above $84 per barrel at the end of September. At the time of writing, Brent is trading at $95.18 per barrel.

Fitch Solutions is currently forecasting that the Brent crude oil price will average $105 per barrel in 2022, while the Bloomberg Consensus sees Brent averaging $101.7 per barrel this year and the latest short term energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration sees the Brent spot price averaging $104.21 per barrel in 2022.

Scope for 1.2 Million Barrels Per Day

In Rystad’s latest market note, Leon highlighted that Rystad believes that OPEC+ will not be able to deliver on the full headline cut but instead has scope to deliver 1.2 million barrels per day of effective cuts “as 14 out of the 23 member countries, accounting for 39 percent of the group’s production in September, are currently underproducing so that the new quota will not be binding”.

“For example, the larger producer's production is around 9.7 million barrels per day but their new quota is 10.5 million barrels per day,” Leon said.

The estimated 1.2 million barrel per day of effective output cut for November 2022 will be mainly shouldered by Saudi Arabia (-520,000 barrels per day), Iraq (-220,000 barrels per day), the UAE (-150,000 barrels per day) and Kuwait (-135,000 barrels per day), Leon forecasted. Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, Gabon, and South Sudan will also contribute, according to Leon.

Leon also pointed out that OPEC+ outlined two non-volume shifts in policy in its official press release, which he said “will also be quite impactful on the oil market”.

“Firstly, the Declaration of Cooperation was extended until the end of 2023. This adds a year of potential sturdy oil price floor amid what OPEC+ describes as ‘uncertain’ global economic outlook and the need for long-term guidance in the oil market,” Leon said.

“Another important detail is that the 23-member group will only meet every six months, signaling that the new target production level of 40.1 will not be tinkered with on a month-to-month basis,” he added.