據美國鉆井網站2022年9月26日報道，據一份來自美國亨利中心的最新報告顯示，惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業(yè)研究公司上調了亨利中心的天然氣價格預測。

報告顯示，惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業(yè)研究公司目前預計，今年亨利中心天然氣的平均價格為7美元/百萬英熱單位，明年將為6.50美元/百萬英熱單位?；葑u解決方案此前的預測顯示，今年亨利中心天然氣的平均價格為5.85美元/百萬英熱單位，明年為5.75美元/百萬英熱單位。  

惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業(yè)研究公司最新的亨利中心天然氣價格報告顯示，展望未來，到2024年亨利中心天然氣的平均價格將為6.00美元/百萬英熱單位，到2025年為5.70美元/百萬英熱單位，到2026年為5.45美元/百萬英熱單位。預測也包括在報告中的彭博共識預計今年亨利中心的天然氣平均價格為6.50美元/百萬英熱單位，2023年為5.90美元/百萬英熱單位，2024年為4.50美元/百萬英熱單位，2025年為4.10美元/百萬英熱單位，2026年為4.30美元/百萬英熱單位。 

惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業(yè)研究公司在其最新報告中表示：“隨著供暖季節(jié)的臨近，住宅和商業(yè)用戶對天然氣的需求增強，我們預計在今年剩余時間里天然氣價格將保持在高位?！?/p>

惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業(yè)研究公司在報告中補充說：“低于平均儲存水平和主要進口國對天然氣的強勁需求，特別是面臨來自產能大國天然氣供應有限的歐洲國家，將支撐歐洲主要液化天然氣（LNG）供應商美國的天然氣價格水平上升?！?/p>

惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業(yè)研究公司在報告中指出，明年亨利中心的天然氣價格前景更加復雜。  

該公司在報告中表示：“盡管我們預計看漲因素將超過看跌因素，使亨利中心的天然氣價格保持在歷史平均水平之上，但我們現在預計明年亨利中心的天然氣價格將比我們之前的預測出現更大的下降。”

“一方面，我們預計天然氣價格將繼續(xù)上漲，主要是由于強勁的國內需求、出口需求和增加的出口能力，因為美國自由港LNG項目前預計將在今年11月下旬恢復85%的產能，并在2023年3月全面投產。與此同時，我們目前預計經濟增長疲軟可能會拖累天然氣需求，導致天然氣價格走低?！?/p>

根據9月7日發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)報告，美國能源信息署(EIA)目前預測，今年亨利中心的天然氣現貨價格平均將為7.37美元/百萬英熱單位，明年將為6.01美元/百萬英熱單位。EIA在8月份發(fā)布的之前的STEO報告顯示，今年亨利中心的天然氣現貨價格平均為6.80美元/百萬英熱單位，明年平均為5.10美元/百萬英熱單位。

在日前發(fā)給美國鉆井網站的一份市場報告中，Rystad能源分析師Ade Allen表示，國內天然氣供需平衡使亨利中心的天然氣價格在冬季的波動加劇，“隨著季節(jié)結束的臨近，市場難以在上行和下行催化劑之間找到平衡”。 

在撰寫本文時，亨利中心的天然氣價格為6.63美元/百萬英熱單位。截至目前，該大宗商品今年的峰值收盤價格為8月22日的9.68美元/百萬英熱單位，截至目前的最低收盤價格為1月4日的3.71美元/百萬英熱單位。亨利中心的天然氣價格在過去幾個月里出現了反彈，在6月份收盤時價格超過了9美元/百萬英熱單位，之后在同月下降到了5.5美元/百萬英熱單位以下，8月份再次上升到9美元/百萬英熱單位以上，9月份又下降到了7美元/百萬英熱單位以下。 

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Fitch Solutions Raises Henry Hub Gas Price Forecast|

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has raised its Henry Hub price forecast, a new report from the company, which was sent to Rigzone, has revealed.

The company now sees the Henry Hub gas price averaging $7.00 per MMBtu in 2022 and $6.50 per MMBtu in 2023, the report showed. Fitch Solutions’ previous forecast saw the commodity averaging $5.85 per MMBtu this year and $5.75 per MMBtu next year, the report highlighted.

Looking further ahead, Fitch Solutions projects that the Henry Hub price will average $6.00 per MMBtu in 2024, $5.70 per MMBtu in 2025, and $5.45 per MMBtu in 2026, the company’s latest Henry Hub price report revealed. The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also included in the report, sees the Henry Hub price averaging $6.50 per MMBtu in 2022, $5.90 per MMBtu in 2023, $4.50 per MMBtu in 2024, $4.10 per MMBtu in 2025, and $4.30 per MMBtu in 2026.

“We expect prices to remain elevated over the remainder of 2022 on the back of strengthening demand for natural gas from the residential and commercial users as the heating season approaches,” Fitch Solutions stated in its latest report.

“Below-average storage levels and strong demand for gas from key importers, in particular European countries facing limited gas supplies from the larger producer, are set to support elevated natural gas price levels in the U.S., a key LNG supplier to Europe,” the company added in the report.

The 2023 price outlook is more mixed, Fitch Solutions noted in the report.

“Although we expect bullish factors to outweigh bearish ones, keeping Henry Hub prices above historical averages, we now expect the 2023 prices to see a steeper decline from 2022 levels than in our previous forecast,” the company stated in the report.

“On the one hand, we expect prices to remain elevated mainly on the back of strong demand export demand and increased export capacity as Freeport LNG is now expected to return 85 percent of production capacity by late November 2022 and become fully operational in March 2023. At the same time, we currently expect weakening economic growth which will likely weigh on natural gas demand and see prices trading lower,” Fitch Solutions added.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is currently forecasting that the Henry Hub spot price will average $7.37 per MMBtu in 2022 and $6.01 per MMBtu in 2023, according to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 7. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in August, saw the Henry Hub spot price averaging $6.80 per MMBtu this year and $5.10 per MMBtu next year.

In a market note sent to Rigzone last week, Rystad Energy Analyst Ade Allen stated that domestic gas balances are setting Henry Hub prices for increased volatility heading into winter “as the market struggles to find equilibrium between upside and downside catalysts as end of season draws near”.

At the time of writing, the Henry Hub price is trading at $6.63 per MMBtu. The commodity’s peak 2022 close, so far, was seen on August 22 at $9.68 per MMBtu and its lowest 2022 close, so far, was seen on January 4 at $3.71 per MMBtu. The Henry Hub price has bounced up and down over the last few months, closing above $9 per MMBtu in June before dropping to under $5.5 per MMBtu during the same month, rising to above $9 per MMBtu again in August and dropping to under $7 per MMBtu in September.