據(jù)海上工程師網(wǎng)2022年10月5日倫敦報(bào)道，卡塔爾能源部長兼卡塔爾能源公司首席執(zhí)行官薩阿德·卡阿比10月5日在倫敦表示，他的公司將在未來5-10年內(nèi)成為全球最大的液化天然氣(LNG)貿(mào)易公司，目前這一地位由殼牌公司占據(jù)。

在爆發(fā)地緣政治沖突之后，歐洲成為這種海運(yùn)燃料的主要市場，歐洲大量購買LNG以幫助取代過去占?xì)W洲大陸進(jìn)口近40%的產(chǎn)能大國管道天然氣。  

分析人士估計(jì)，未來10年，歐洲將需要進(jìn)口大約2億噸LNG，才能逐步淘汰產(chǎn)能大國管道天然氣。2020年，LNG價(jià)格從每百萬英熱單位不到2美元的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)升至今年8月的57美元高點(diǎn)。

卡阿比在倫敦舉行的能源情報(bào)論壇上表示：“我們現(xiàn)在的LNG年交易量約為500萬至1000萬噸。 在未來5-10年內(nèi)，我們將成為全球最大的LNG貿(mào)易公司?！?nbsp;

卡阿比說，“我們大約在兩年前開始LNG貿(mào)易，我想說，卡塔爾能源公司的盈利能力可能是我想象的20倍?！?nbsp;

卡塔爾已經(jīng)是世界上最大的LNG出口國，其北部油田擴(kuò)建項(xiàng)目將提升這一地位，并有助于確保對(duì)歐洲的長期天然氣供應(yīng)，因?yàn)闅W洲大陸正在尋找能夠替代產(chǎn)能大國天然氣供應(yīng)的能源來源。 

LNG現(xiàn)貨貨物價(jià)格從兩年前的約1500萬—2000萬美元飆升至1.75億—2億美元，從而鞏固了少數(shù)主要LNG交易商手中的交易。

據(jù)估計(jì)，殼牌公司和道達(dá)爾能源公司的投資組合合計(jì)為1.1億噸，而目前市場估計(jì)為4億噸。  

卡塔爾能源公司的投資組合估計(jì)為7000萬噸，bp的投資組合估計(jì)在3000萬噸左右，剩下4家公司占據(jù)了超過一半的市場。

世界上最大液化天然氣(LNG)項(xiàng)目的卡塔爾北部油田擴(kuò)建項(xiàng)目包括6條LNG生產(chǎn)線，到2027年前，卡塔爾每年的液化能力將從7700萬噸提高到1.26億噸。  

卡塔爾與道達(dá)爾能源公司、殼牌公司、?？松梨诠尽⒖捣乒竞桶Ｄ峁竞炇鹆吮辈坑吞飻U(kuò)建項(xiàng)目第一階段北方油田東區(qū) (NFE)的股權(quán)協(xié)議。

對(duì)于第二階段北方油田南區(qū)(NFS)項(xiàng)目，道達(dá)爾能源公司將投資大約15億美元。 

卡阿比表示，將有3家合作伙伴加入NFS項(xiàng)目，與NFE屬于同一組，并補(bǔ)充說，簽署儀式即將舉行。 

歐洲交易 

卡阿比拒絕就向德國供應(yīng)LNG的談判進(jìn)展置評(píng)，雙方在合同期限和定價(jià)等關(guān)鍵條款上存在分歧。 業(yè)內(nèi)消息人士9月份曾向路透社表示，預(yù)計(jì)雙方將很快達(dá)成妥協(xié)。

卡阿比表示，通常，在諸如歐洲這樣一個(gè)“以樞紐為基礎(chǔ)的市場”，很難鎖定長期天然氣協(xié)議。在歐洲，LNG的定價(jià)一般與天然氣的定價(jià)密切相關(guān)。

卡塔爾更喜歡長期的、通常與油價(jià)掛鉤的合同，以保持收入穩(wěn)定，并與亞洲買家簽訂了15年—20年的長期LNG協(xié)議。

卡阿比說：“如果有一個(gè)更好的市場，除非有人愿意付出機(jī)會(huì)損失，否則我就沒有動(dòng)力…… 在以樞紐為基礎(chǔ)的市場中，很難有基于樞紐的固定供應(yīng)。”

交易商估計(jì)，卡塔爾的LNG年出口能力約為1060億立方米，其中包括大約90%-95%的長期合同和5%-10%的現(xiàn)貨合同。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

QatarEnergy to Be the Largest LNG Trader Over Next 5-10 years - Minister

QatarEnergy CEO and state minister for energy Saad al-Kaabi said on Wednesday that his company will become the world's largest trader of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the next 5-10 years, a position that is currently held by Shell. 

Following the war, Europe in particular has become a prime market for the seaborne fuel, where massive amounts are being bought to help replace pipeline gas that used to make up almost 40% of the continent's imports.

Analysts estimate Europe will need to import around 200 million tonnes of LNG over the next decade to phase out Russian gas. LNG prices rose from record lows below $2 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2020 to highs of $57 in August.

"We are trading about 5-10 million (tonnes of LNG) now. We will be, in the next 5-10 years, the largest LNG trader in the world by far. This is ours and third-party (volumes)," Kaabi told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London. 

"We started about two years ago (with trading)... I would say that the profitability of that venture is probably 20 times what I thought it could be."

Qatar is already the world's top LNG exporter and its North Field expansion project will boost that position and help guarantee long-term supplies of gas to Europe as the continent seeks alternatives to Russian flows.   

The spike in spot LNG cargo prices to $175-$200 million, from around $15-$20 million two years ago, has consolidated trading in the hands of a few major traders. 

Shell and TotalEnergies are estimated to have a combined portfolio of 110 million tonnes of the current estimated market of 400 million tonnes.

QatarEnergy's portfolio is estimated at 70 million tonnes, and BP's is estimated at around 30 million, leaving four players accounting for more than half of the market.

The North Field expansion of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) project includes six LNG trains that will ramp up liquefaction capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 126 mtpa by 2027.

Qatar has signed deals for stakes in the first phase of the expansion project, North Field East (NFE) with TotalEnergies, Shell, Exxon, ConocoPhillips and Eni.

For the second phase, North Field South (NFS), TotalEnergies will invest around $1.5 billion.   

Kaabi said that there will be three partners entering the NFS project, part of the same group as NFE, adding that signing ceremonies will be imminent. 

EUROPEAN DEALS

Kaabi declined to comment on the progress of talks to supply Germany with LNG, which have been fraught with differences over key conditions such as the length of contracts and pricing. Industry sources told Reuters in September the parties were expected to reach a compromise soon. 

Generally, Kaabi said it was difficult to lock in long term gas agreements in a "hub-based market" such as Europe where LNG is priced in general against that of natural gas.

Qatar prefers the long-term, generally oil-indexed contracts for revenue stability, and has long term 15-20 year LNG deals with Asian buyers.   

"There is no incentive for me unless somebody is willing to pay the opportunity loss if there is a market that is better... In hub-based markets it's difficult to have hard-wired supply that is based on that hub."

Traders estimate Qatar's nameplate LNG export capacity of around 106 billion cubic metres includes about 90%-95% long-term contracts and 5%-10% spot contracts.