據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年9月8日?qǐng)?bào)道， 美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）9月8日發(fā)布了其最新的短期能源展望（STEO）報(bào)告，報(bào)告中提供了該機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)今年和明年布倫特原油價(jià)格的最新預(yù)測(cè)。

根據(jù)9月份的STEO報(bào)告，EIA預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)為每桶104.21美元，明年為每桶96.91美元。從季度來(lái)看，STEO報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，今年第三季度布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨的平均價(jià)格將為每桶103.89美元，今年第四季度將為每桶97.98美元。

EIA在8月份發(fā)布的上一份STEO報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)，今年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將達(dá)到每桶104.78美元，明年將達(dá)到每桶95.13美元。EIA 8月的STEO報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，今年第三季度布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨平均價(jià)格將達(dá)到每桶105.82美元，在今年第四季度將達(dá)到每桶98.30美元。 

EIA在其最新的STEO報(bào)告中表示，“8月份布倫特原油近月期貨平均價(jià)格為每桶98美元，比7月份每桶低了大約7美元”，并補(bǔ)充稱，8月份布倫特原油價(jià)格下跌“可能反映了全球石油庫(kù)存的整體增加”。

EIA在STEO報(bào)告中補(bǔ)充道：“我們估計(jì)，到2023年底，原油價(jià)格將普遍保持在8月份的平均水平附近。盡管我們預(yù)計(jì)原油均價(jià)明年將基本維持在每桶90美元—100美元之間，但在這些均價(jià)附近大幅波動(dòng)的可能性依然很高?！?/p>

在最新的STEO報(bào)告中，EIA強(qiáng)調(diào)了近期發(fā)生的幾起事件，“加劇了原油市場(chǎng)和我們預(yù)測(cè)中的不確定性”。這些事件包括最近歐佩克+決定在10月份將原油日產(chǎn)量減少10萬(wàn)桶的影響，未來(lái)是否會(huì)進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)，以及目前戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備的原油協(xié)調(diào)釋放可能在11月份到期的不確定性。 

在撰寫(xiě)本文時(shí)，布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格為每桶88.18美元。今年以來(lái)，布倫特原油期貨的最低交易價(jià)格是1月3日的每桶78.98美元，而迄今為止的最高交易價(jià)格是3月8日的每桶127.98美元。  

今年2月，隨著地緣政治軍事沖突升級(jí)，油價(jià)多年來(lái)首次飆升至每桶100美元以上。布倫特原油期貨在9月7日?qǐng)?bào)收于每桶88美元，而在8月底前報(bào)收于每桶105.09美元。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Where Is the Oil Price Heading in 2022 and 2023?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which offers the organization’s latest Brent crude oil price forecasts for this year and the next.

According to the September STEO, the EIA sees the Brent spot price averaging $104.21 per barrel in 2022 and $96.91 per barrel in 2023. Broken down quarterly, the STEO forecasts that the commodity will average $103.89 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and $97.98 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2022.

In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $104.78 per barrel in 2022 and $95.13 per barrel in 2023. The EIA’s August STEO forecasted that the Brent spot average price would come in at $105.82 per barrel in the third quarter of 2022 and $98.30 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2022.

“The monthly average Brent front-month futures price was $98 per barrel in August, about $7 per barrel lower than in July,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO, adding that the lower prices in August “l(fā)ikely reflected overall increases in global petroleum inventories”.

“We estimate that crude oil prices will generally remain near August average levels through the end of 2023. Although we expect average crude oil prices to mostly remain between $90 per barrel - $100 per barrel through next year, the possibility for significant volatility around those averages is high,” the EIA added in the STEO.

In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted several recent events “contributing to increased uncertainty in the crude oil market and in our forecast”. These included the impact of the recent OPEC decision to reduce crude oil production by 0.1 million barrels per day in October and whether there will be further production cuts in the future,and uncertainty around the potential expiration of the current coordinated petroleum release from strategic reserves in November.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $88.18 per barrel. The lowest the commodity has traded this year, so far, was $78.98 per barrel on January 3, while the highest, so far, was $127.98 per barrel on March 8.

Oil soared past $100 per barrel for the first time in years in February as Russian forces escalated a conflict with Ukraine. The commodity closed at $88 per barrel on September 7 after closing at $105.09 per barrel near the end of August.