據(jù)美國彭博新聞社2022年8月25日報道，據(jù)德勤會計師事務所統(tǒng)計，美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商今年有望獲得近2000億美元的收入，這足以使美國頁巖行業(yè)在2024年前擺脫債務，并可能為轉向更多的天然氣生產(chǎn)提供資金。

德勤會計師事務所在一份報告中稱，高油價和嚴格的資本支出意味著美國水力壓裂企業(yè)將迎來有記錄以來最賺錢的一年，這是全球趨勢的一部分，油氣行業(yè)將創(chuàng)造創(chuàng)紀錄的1.4萬億美元自由現(xiàn)金流。在償還債務和回報股東之后，由于全球范圍內(nèi)的高需求和高價格，美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商可能會把更多收入放在天然氣生產(chǎn)上。  

德勤會計師事務所美國石油、天然氣和化工業(yè)務主管艾米?克尼斯在接受采訪時表示：“我們看到上游業(yè)務正轉向天然氣?！表搸r運營商“將加大對美國頁巖氣盆地的投資”，并可能有足夠的剩余資金增加對低碳燃料的投資。 

今年油氣行業(yè)繁榮的關鍵區(qū)別并不在于價格高，而是與歷史標準相比，該行業(yè)缺乏資本支出。德勤會計師事務所公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，與2014年油價還在每桶100美元左右時相比，全球運營商目前在油氣生產(chǎn)項目上的支出減少了大約60%。

報告稱：“投資正與油價脫鉤，資本支出紀律如今已成為常態(tài)?！?/p>

這一趨勢在美國頁巖行業(yè)最為明顯，從2010年到2019年，美國頁巖行業(yè)消耗了大約3000億美元現(xiàn)金。但對于那些在疫情中幸存下來的公司來說，收益是實實在在的。美國頁巖行業(yè)將在2021年和2022年收回全部虧損，并在這十年的剩余時間里有望實現(xiàn)進一步盈利。德勤會計師事務所的分析假設，今年布倫特原油的平均價格為每桶106美元，2023年為每桶81美元。布倫特原油期貨價格周三（8月24日）報收于每桶101.22美元。  

報告還顯示，利潤規(guī)模開始來自美國液化天然氣運營商。他們預計今年將賺590億美元，是去年的兩倍，并輕松收回2013年至2020年450億美元的虧損。 

李峻 編譯自 美國彭博新聞社

原文如下：

U.S. shale on track for $200 billion year, could erase its debt by 2024

U.S. shale producers are on course to make nearly $200 billion this year, enough to make the industry debt-free by 2024 and potentially fund a pivot toward more natural gas production, according to Deloitte LLP. 

High oil prices and disciplined capital spending mean American frackers are on course for their most profitable year on record, part of a global trend that will see the oil and gas industry generate a record $1.4 trillion of free cash flow, Deloitte said in a report. After paying down debt and rewarding shareholders, US producers will likely focus more on natural gas production due to high demand and prices around the world. 

“We see a shift in upstream activity toward natural gas,” Amy Chronis, Deloitte’s US oil, gas and chemicals leader, said in an interview. Shale operators “will double down on US natural gas basins” and may have enough money left over to increase investments in low-carbon fuels. 

The key difference with this year’s oil and gas boom is not so much high prices, but the industry’s lack of capital expenditure compared with historical norms. Global operators are spending about 60% less on oil and gas production projects now than they were in 2014, the last time oil was trading around $100 a barrel, Deloitte’s data show. 

“Investments are decoupling from oil prices and capex discipline is now a norm,” the report said. 

The trend is most powerfully seen in US shale, which burned through about $300 billion of cash from 2010 to 2019. But for those companies that survived the pandemic, the bounty is well and truly here. The industry will have made back that entire loss in 2021 and 2022, with further profits on the horizon for the rest of the decade. Deloitte’s analysis assumes an average Brent oil price of $106 a barrel for 2022 and $81 a barrel for 2023. Brent futures settled at $101.22 a barrel on Wednesday.

The report also showed the scale of the profits beginning to come from US liquefied natural gas operators. They are expected to make $59 billion this year, double last year’s amount and easily making back $45 billion of losses from 2013 to 2020.