據(jù)管道新聞網(wǎng)9月1日消息稱，在過去的五年中，美國乙烷產(chǎn)量一直在增加，并在3月份達(dá)到了250萬桶/天的月度紀(jì)錄。從那時(shí)起，美國每月的乙烷產(chǎn)量超過240萬桶/天。在我們的短期能源展望（STEO）中，我們預(yù)測2022年下半年乙烷產(chǎn)量將比2022年上半年增長9%，平均每天超過260萬桶。我們預(yù)計(jì)2022年的產(chǎn)量將超過2021年的16%，即34萬桶/天。

STEO預(yù)測，2023年美國乙烷產(chǎn)量將再次增長7%，達(dá)到270萬桶/天，以支持美國消費(fèi)和出口的持續(xù)增長。乙烷幾乎完全是石化工廠（被稱為蒸汽裂化裝置）生產(chǎn)乙烯的原料，乙烯是制造許多塑料和樹脂的前體化學(xué)品。三種新的石化裂解裝置已經(jīng)投入使用，以支持國內(nèi)乙烯產(chǎn)量的增長：兩種在得克薩斯州，一種在賓夕法尼亞州。

自2017年以來，美國乙烷價(jià)格普遍高于天然氣價(jià)格，這促使天然氣工廠運(yùn)營商從原始天然氣流中回收更多乙烷。當(dāng)乙烷價(jià)格相對較高時(shí)，天然氣運(yùn)營商會回收更多的乙烷，在液體燃料市場銷售（業(yè)內(nèi)稱之為乙烷回收）。當(dāng)乙烷價(jià)格相對較低時(shí)，操作人員會在加工過的天然氣流中留下更多的乙烷（業(yè)內(nèi)稱為乙烷拒收），這些乙烷以天然氣熱值出售。2021年，乙烷價(jià)格平均為80美分/百萬英熱單位，比干式天然氣價(jià)格高出26%，推動了乙烷回收率的提高。在2022年上半年，盡管平均天然氣價(jià)格更高，但乙烷溢價(jià)穩(wěn)定在1.36美元/百萬英熱單位，比Henry Hub天然氣批發(fā)價(jià)格高出25%。

自2015年以來，乙烷作為一種石化原料的海外需求一直在增長。我們預(yù)計(jì)美國乙烷出口量將從2022年第二季度的約35萬桶/天增長至第四季度的約44萬桶/天。我們預(yù)計(jì)2023年乙烷出口量將增加到46萬桶/天。

曹海斌 摘譯自 管道新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA expects U.S. ethane production to grow by 9% in the second half of 2022

Ethane production has been increasing in the United States for the past five years, and it reached a monthly record of 2.5 MMbpd in March. More than 2.4 MMbpd of ethane has been produced in the United States every month since then. In our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast ethane production in the second half of 2022 to grow by 9% compared with the first half of 2022, averaging over 2.6 MMbpd. We expect that production in 2022 will exceed production in 2021 by 16%, or 340,000 bpd.

Our STEO forecasts annual ethane production to increase again in the United States during 2023 by 7% to nearly 2.7 MMbpd to support continued growth in U.S. consumption and exports. Ethane is consumed almost exclusively as a feedstock in petrochemical plants known as steam crackers to produce ethylene, a precursor chemical for manufacturing many plastics and resins. Three new petrochemical crackers have come online to support growth in domestic ethylene production: two in Texas and one in Pennsylvania.

Since 2017, U.S. ethane prices have generally traded at a premium relative to natural gas prices, spurring natural gas plant operators to recover more ethane from raw natural gas streams. When ethane prices are relatively high, natural gas operators recover more ethane to sell in the liquid fuels market (known in the industry as ethane recovery). When ethane prices are relatively low, operators leave more ethane in the processed natural gas stream (known in the industry as ethane rejection), and this ethane is sold at the natural gas heating value. In 2021, ethane prices averaged 80 cents per MMBtu—26% higher than dry natural gas prices—driving higher rates of ethane recovery. During the first half of 2022, the ethane premium remained steady at $1.36/MMBtu, which was 25% above the Henry Hub natural gas wholesale price, despite higher average natural gas prices.

Demand for ethane overseas as a petrochemical feedstock has been growing since 2015. We forecast U.S. exports of ethane to continue to grow from about 350,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2022 to about 440,000 bpd in the fourth quarter. We expect ethane exports to rise to 460,000 bpd in 2023.