據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年8月31日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)歐佩克+聯(lián)合技術(shù)委員會(huì)（JTC）發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告，JTC目前預(yù)計(jì)今年石油市場(chǎng)上的石油過(guò)剩將比此前的估計(jì)高出10萬(wàn)桶/天。 

這個(gè)石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)聯(lián)盟目前認(rèn)為今年石油市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)90萬(wàn)桶/天的過(guò)剩，比之前的預(yù)測(cè)增加了10萬(wàn)桶/天。

在基本情況下，JTC的報(bào)告估計(jì)，9月份石油市場(chǎng)過(guò)剩將為310萬(wàn)桶/天，10月份將降至60萬(wàn)桶/天。 根據(jù)路透社的報(bào)告，11月份石油市場(chǎng)過(guò)剩值料將再度上升，達(dá)到140萬(wàn)桶/天。 

JTC審查石油市場(chǎng)的情況，并就基本面問(wèn)題向歐佩克+聯(lián)盟提供建議，但它不建議采取行動(dòng)。  

然而，對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)過(guò)剩的預(yù)測(cè)提高了歐佩克+減產(chǎn)的理由。 

上周，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣表示，如果歐佩克認(rèn)為這將為“分裂的”石油市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)穩(wěn)定，那么歐佩克將隨時(shí)準(zhǔn)備以任何形式減產(chǎn)。

在沙特阿拉伯發(fā)出這個(gè)信號(hào)后，歐佩克今年輪值主席、剛果能源部長(zhǎng)Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua也表示支持可能的減產(chǎn)。 一位熟悉阿聯(lián)酋想法的消息人士上周告訴路透社，阿聯(lián)酋對(duì)原油市場(chǎng)的看法與沙特阿拉伯類似。 

包括伊拉克、哈薩克斯坦在內(nèi)的一些歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)也表示支持新的產(chǎn)量限制。  

歐佩克+將于9月5日召開例會(huì)，但目前還不確定是否會(huì)討論新的減產(chǎn)。

兩周前，歐佩克秘書長(zhǎng)海賽姆·蓋斯告訴路透社，全球石油需求仍然強(qiáng)勁，并將持續(xù)到今年年底。蓋斯說(shuō)，最近的石油拋售并沒有反映基本面，而是出于恐懼。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC+ Increases Its Oil Market Surplus Forecast By 100,000 Bpd

OPEC+ now expects the oil surplus on the market this year to be higher than its previous estimate by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to a report by the producer group’s Joint Technical Committee (JTC) seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

The alliance of oil producers now sees an oil market surplus of 900,000 bpd for 2022, up by 100,000 bpd compared to the previous projection. 

In the base-case scenario, the JTC report estimates that the market surplus will be 3.1 million bpd in September, before dropping to 600,000 bpd in October. For November, the surplus is expected to rise again, to 1.4 million bpd, according to the report seen by Reuters.  

JTC reviews the situation in the oil market and advises the OPEC+ group on fundamentals, but it does not recommend a course of action. 

However, the raised forecast of an oil market surplus makes the case for OPEC+ production cuts stronger. 

Last week, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said that OPEC+ was ready to cut production at any time in any form if it believes it would bring stability to the “schizophrenic” oil market.  

After the Saudi signal, OPEC’s rotating president for this year, Congo’s Hydrocarbons Minister Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua, also expressed support for potential cuts. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has similar views to Saudi Arabia on the crude oil markets, a source familiar with the UAE’s thinking told Reuters last week. 

Some other OPEC+ producers, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, have also signaled support for new production restrictions.

OPEC+ meets on September 5 at a regular meeting, but it’s not a given yet that it would discuss new production cuts.  

Two weeks ago, OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais told Reuters that global oil demand was still robust and would be such through the end of this year. Al-Ghais said that the recent sell-off in oil didn’t reflect fundamentals and was driven by fear.