據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年8月18日報道，挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的最新研究結(jié)果顯示，在去年全球鉆井成功率跌至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點的令人失望以后，高影響力油氣遠(yuǎn)景構(gòu)造的鉆井活動將在今年強勁反彈。 

今年到目前為止，這些關(guān)鍵井發(fā)現(xiàn)油氣資源的成功率為47%，高于2021年的28%。距離今年年底還有4個多月的時間，來自高影響力井的油氣發(fā)現(xiàn)量已經(jīng)增加近4倍，超過17億桶油當(dāng)量，這是確保全球油氣供應(yīng)的一個積極跡象。

今年全球?qū)㈤_鉆33口高影響力井，這是自該機(jī)構(gòu)2015年開始跟蹤這個行業(yè)以來最大的年度數(shù)量，高于去年完成的29口高影響力井，由于成功率低，去年僅獲得4.5億桶油當(dāng)量的油氣儲量。 

Rystad通過多種因素對高影響力井進(jìn)行分類，包括遠(yuǎn)景構(gòu)造規(guī)模、是否會在前沿地區(qū)或新興盆地釋放新的油氣資源，以及它們對運營商的重要性。 

與最近的趨勢相反，今年發(fā)現(xiàn)的液體儲量約為12億桶油當(dāng)量，約占總發(fā)現(xiàn)儲量的70%，而發(fā)現(xiàn)的天然氣儲量約為5.5億桶油當(dāng)量。在前幾年，天然氣的發(fā)現(xiàn)量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過液體的發(fā)現(xiàn)量。今年的反轉(zhuǎn)主要是由于在納米比亞海上獲得了兩個重要的石油發(fā)現(xiàn)——法國道達(dá)爾能源公司的維納斯石油發(fā)現(xiàn)和殼牌公司的格拉夫石油發(fā)現(xiàn)。  

Rystad高級分析師Taiyab Zain Shariff說：“去年全球從高影響力井中發(fā)現(xiàn)的天然氣和液體儲量令人失望，但今年有望彌補這一下滑。如果今年上半年的成功率維持全年，我們可能會看到有記錄以來產(chǎn)量最高的年度之一?！?/p>

在今年預(yù)計的33口高影響力井中，19口井已經(jīng)完鉆，4口井正在鉆進(jìn)中，10口井計劃在明年之前完鉆。今年到目前為止，超過一半的井被認(rèn)為是“公司的重點”，這表明越來越多的運營商正在縮小他們的勘探地理范圍，專注于核心區(qū)域，而不是邊緣地區(qū)。  

全球石油巨頭和其他油氣勘探和生產(chǎn)公司占今年將完鉆的高影響力井的60%以上。石油巨頭已經(jīng)完鉆8口高影響力井，其中4口井獲得了商業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)——道達(dá)爾能源公司在納米比亞的維納斯石油發(fā)現(xiàn)和殼牌公司在納米比亞的格拉夫石油發(fā)現(xiàn)，?？松梨诠驹诠鐏喣堑腇angtooth石油發(fā)現(xiàn)以及埃尼公司在阿聯(lián)酋的XG-002天然氣發(fā)現(xiàn)。 

今年到目前為止，南美洲和非洲已完鉆超過45%的高影響力井，其次是澳大利亞和歐洲，各占16%。從單個國家來看，澳大利亞的高影響力井完鉆數(shù)量最多，有3口，其次是圭亞那和納米比亞，各有2口。

在今年已完鉆的19口高影響力井中，47%的井獲得了商業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)，其余的井要么是干井，要么是沒有商業(yè)開采價值的井，還有一口井仍在等待結(jié)果。只有一口井獲得純石油發(fā)現(xiàn)，而其他井的發(fā)現(xiàn)要么是氣體，要么是含伴生氣的液體。今年迄今高影響力井的成功率幾乎相當(dāng)于2020年全年，2020年是高影響力井產(chǎn)量最成功的年份之一。 

Rystad預(yù)計全球在今年剩余時間里將完鉆或開鉆14口高影響力井，其中6口由石油巨頭完鉆。目前正在鉆進(jìn)的4口高影響力井中，埃尼公司負(fù)責(zé)其中兩口。第一口井是位于Cyprus附近區(qū)塊6的克羅諾斯-1井，鉆井總深度大約7700英尺，目標(biāo)為白堊紀(jì)地層。另一口井是印度尼西亞的Dan Tranh-1X井，該井位于Song Hong盆地中新世遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)。另外兩口正在鉆進(jìn)中的高影響力井分別是雷普索爾公司位于印度尼西亞海上Andaman-III區(qū)塊的Rencong井和殼牌公司在圣多美和普林西比邊界的里約穆尼盆地的Jaca-1井。該井上周鉆到了總深度，目前正在進(jìn)行完井和評估作業(yè)。

今年計劃開鉆的其他高影響力井分布在非洲和美洲，東南亞也有一些令人興奮的初探井。這些井大部分被視為“公司的重點”，其次是位于邊緣盆地的井。邊緣盆地的初探井將有觀察的興趣，因為它們可能開啟全新的石油區(qū)域。其中包括科威特32年來的首次海上調(diào)查，哈里伯頓公司與科威特石油公司簽訂了6口高溫高壓探井的合同。如果成功的話，這個鉆井活動可能有助于重啟長期中斷之后的科威特海上遺留油田。 

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

High-Impact Drilling To Rebound In 2022 After Miserable 2021 

Drilling of high-impact oil and gas prospects is set to rebound this year after a disappointing 2021 when success rates plunged towards record lows, Rystad Energy research shows.

These critical wells have found hydrocarbons 47 percent of the time so far this year, up from a measly 28 percent for 2021. With more than four months still to go in 2022, discovered volumes from high-impact wells have nearly quadrupled to over 1.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) – a positive sign for the global hydrocarbon supply.

A total of 33 high-impact wells are set to be drilled this year, the largest annual number since Rystad Energy started tracking the sector in 2015. This is only slightly more than last year’s 29 high-impact probes, which only yielded 450 million boe because of the low success rate.

Rystad Energy classifies high-impact wells through a combination of factors, including the size of the prospect, whether they would unlock new hydrocarbon resources in frontier areas or emerging basins, and their significance to the operator.

Bucking recent trends, discovered liquids have accounted for 1.2 billion boe or almost 70 percent of the volumes this year, while gas discoveries total about 550 million boe. In previous years, gas discoveries have vastly outnumbered liquids volumes. This year’s reversal is mainly due to two significant oil offshore discoveries in Namibia – TotalEnergies’ Venus and Shell’s Graff.

“Last year was disappointing for discovering gas and liquid volumes from high-impact wells, but 2022 is on track to make up for that slump. If the success rate seen in the first half of 2022 holds for the full year, we could be in for one of the most productive annual volumes total on record,” says Rystad Energy senior analyst Taiyab Zain Shariff.

Of the 33 expected high-impact wells this year, 19 have already been completed, four are in progress, and 10 are scheduled to be completed before next year. More than half of the wells drilled so far in 2022 are considered a “focus for the company,” indicating that more operators are narrowing their geographical range of exploration and focusing on core regions instead of frontier areas.

The global oil majors and other exploration and production companies account for more than 60% of the high-impact wells completed this year. Majors have drilled eight high-impact wells, of which four resulted in commercial discoveries – TotalEnergies’ Venus and Shell’s Graff oil discoveries in Namibia, ExxonMobil’s Fangtooth oil find in Guyana, and Eni’s XG-002 gas discovery in the UAE.

More than 45 percent of wells completed so far in 2022 are in South America and Africa, followed by Australia, and Europe with 16 percent each of completed wells. By individual country, Australia accounted for the most completed high-impact wells with three, followed by Guyana and Namibia with two wells each.

Of the 19 high-impact wells completed this year, 47 percent resulted in a commercial discovery, with the rest either dry or uncommercial and one still awaiting results. only one find was a pure oil discovery, while the rest were either gas or liquids with associated gas. This year’s success rate is almost equivalent to 2020, which was one of the most successful years in volumes from high-impact wells.

Rystad expects 14 high-impact wells to be completed or spudded for the rest of this year, six of them by majors. Eni operates two of the four high-impact wells currently being drilled. The first is the Cronos-1 well in Block 6 off Cyprus, which is drilled at a water depth of around 7,700 feet targeting a Cretaceous play. The other is the Dan Tranh-1X well off Indonesia, targeting a newly identified Miocene play in the emerging Song Hong Basin. The other two in-progress wells are the much-awaited, play-opening Rencong well operated by Repsol in the Andaman-III block off Indonesia, and Shell’s Jaca-1 well in the frontier Rio Muni basin of Sao Tome & Principe. That well reached its total depth last week and is undergoing completion and evaluation.

The rest of the wells planned for this year are distributed throughout Africa and the Americas, with some exciting wildcats to watch in Southeast Asia as well. Most of these are classified “focus for the company,” followed by wells in frontier basins. The frontier wildcats will be interesting to watch as they may open entirely new petroleum regions. These include Kuwait’s first offshore probe in 32 years, where Halliburton has a contract to drill six HPHT exploration wells for Kuwait Petroleum. If successful, this campaign could help restart Kuwait’s offshore legacy fields after a long hiatus.