國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）：中東主要石油出口國(guó)到2026年前預(yù)計(jì)將從石油出口中獲得1.3萬億美元的額外收入  

高油價(jià)和持續(xù)的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩是高收益背后的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素 

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）：石油和天然氣出口國(guó)應(yīng)該利用意外收入投資能源轉(zhuǎn)型

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預(yù)測(cè)，到2026年前，中東主要石油出口國(guó)將因高油價(jià)和地緣政治沖突爆發(fā)后全球石油市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩獲得1.3萬億美元額外石油出口收入。

IMF中東和北非主管杰哈德?阿祖爾本周對(duì)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示，海灣國(guó)家“到2026年累計(jì)石油出口額外收入將增加1.3萬億美元”。  

IMF專家說，石油收入的滾滾財(cái)源將充實(shí)中東主要石油出口國(guó)的大型主權(quán)財(cái)富基金的金庫(kù)。

不過，阿祖爾警告說，海灣地區(qū)的主要石油和天然氣出口國(guó)應(yīng)該利用這筆意外之財(cái)在未來進(jìn)行投資，包括為能源轉(zhuǎn)型做準(zhǔn)備。 

IMF本周早些時(shí)候說，與美國(guó)和歐洲許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體不同的是，由于油價(jià)的上漲和石油產(chǎn)量的增加，中東和世界最大的石油出口國(guó)沙特阿拉伯將成為今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一。美國(guó)和歐洲許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將放緩，并可能在冬季一到就陷入衰退。

由于全面的利商改革、油價(jià)大幅上漲以及生產(chǎn)能力從疫情引發(fā)的衰退中復(fù)蘇，沙特阿拉伯今年可能成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一。國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)7.6%，這將是近10年來最快的增長(zhǎng)。 

阿祖爾說：“以可持續(xù)的方式管理石油收入，這樣支出就不會(huì)隨著油價(jià)的漲跌而上升和下降，這將促進(jìn)財(cái)政的可持續(xù)性，并防止回到以前由石油驅(qū)動(dòng)的繁榮和蕭條周期。具有遠(yuǎn)見的預(yù)算規(guī)劃和使經(jīng)濟(jì)多樣化的政策也會(huì)起到同樣的作用。”

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Middle East Producers Expect To Bank Additional $1.3 Trillion From Oil Exports

·     IMF: The major oil exporting countries in the Middle East are expected to receive an additional $1.3 trillion from oil by 2026.

·     Higher oil prices and ongoing market turmoil are the driving factors behind higher earnings.

·     IMF: Oil and gas exports should use windfall to invest in energy transition.

The major oil exporting countries in the Middle East are expected to receive an additional $1.3 trillion from oil by 2026, thanks to high oil prices and the global oil market turmoil after the war, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The Gulf states in particular are set for “additional cumulative oil revenues of $1.3tn through 2026,” Jihad Azour, IMF director for the Middle East and North Africa, told the Financial Times this week.

According to IMF experts, the oil revenue bonanza will bolster the coffers of the large sovereign wealth funds of the major exporters in the Middle East.

However, Azour cautioned that the Gulf oil and gas exporters should use the windfall to invest in the future, including in preparation for the energy transition.

Unlike the U.S. and many economies in Europe, which see slowing growth and could tip into recession as soon as the winter comes, the economy of the largest oil exporter in the Middle East and the world, Saudi Arabia, is set for one of the fastest growth rates this year with the jump in oil prices and higher oil production, the IMF said earlier this week.

“Saudi Arabia is likely to be one of the world’s fastest-growing economies this year as sweeping pro-business reforms and a sharp rise in oil prices and production power recovery from a pandemic-induced recession in 2020. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by 7.6 percent, the fastest growth in almost a decade,” the IMF said.

“Managing oil revenues in a sustainable manner, so that spending does not rise and fall in line with the price of oil, would promote fiscal sustainability and prevent a return to previous oil-driven cycles of boom and bust. So too would far-sighted budget planning and policies to diversify the economy,” the IMF noted.