據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年7月20日?qǐng)?bào)道，總部位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源署（IEA）在其最新一期的電力市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中說，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩和能源價(jià)格高企，全球電力需求增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)明顯放緩。 

IEA說，“今年全球電力需求增長(zhǎng)將顯著放緩。在疫情封鎖緩解和經(jīng)濟(jì)快速復(fù)蘇的推動(dòng)下，去年全球電力需求強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)6%，我們預(yù)計(jì)今年全球電力需求增長(zhǎng)將放緩至2.4%，與2015年至2019年的平均水平大致相同”。

IEA表示，全球電力需求增長(zhǎng)放緩反映出，在爆發(fā)地緣政治沖突以后，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩、能源價(jià)格上漲，以及公共衛(wèi)生方面的新限制。

根據(jù)IEA公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，可再生能源的增長(zhǎng)速度超過需求，正在取代化石燃料，今年迄今為止的強(qiáng)勁產(chǎn)能增長(zhǎng)幫助全球可再生能源發(fā)電實(shí)現(xiàn)10%的增長(zhǎng)。

此外，IEA指出，歐盟正準(zhǔn)備通過加快清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型，降低對(duì)產(chǎn)能大國(guó)化石燃料進(jìn)口的依賴。 

IEA對(duì)未來一年的預(yù)測(cè)也不樂觀：“截至今年年中，我們預(yù)計(jì)2023年全球電力需求增長(zhǎng)將保持與今年類似的速度?？稍偕茉?%的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)和核能發(fā)電的復(fù)蘇可能會(huì)取代部分天然氣和煤炭發(fā)電，導(dǎo)致電力行業(yè)的二氧化碳排放量下降1%?！?nbsp;

如果預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確的話，全球電力需求下降對(duì)天然氣生產(chǎn)商來說可能是個(gè)壞消息，因?yàn)榛剂显谌虬l(fā)電量中所占比例高達(dá)25%。

對(duì)于天然氣投資者來說，還有更多的壞消息，歐盟周三（7月20日）向成員國(guó)提議，在明年3月之前將天然氣使用量削減15%，以應(yīng)對(duì)產(chǎn)能大國(guó)可能切斷對(duì)歐洲的天然氣供應(yīng)的“可能情況”。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

IEA:Global Electricity Demand Has Slowed Dramatically

In its latest Electricity Market Report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) says that global demand for electricity is already slowing sharply thanks to slowing economic growth and high energy prices.

“Electricity demand growth is slowing significantly in 2022. After global electricity demand grew by a strong 6% in 2021, propelled by rapid economic recovery as COVID-19 lockdowns eased, we expect growth to slow to 2.4% in 2022--about the same as the average from 2015 to 2019,” according to the report.

The agency said that the slowing growth reflected slower global economic growth and higher energy prices following the war as well as renewed public health restrictions, particularly.

Renewable sources of energy are growing faster than demand and replacing fossil fuels, according to the international energy body, with strong capacity additions so far this year helping global renewable power generation achieve a 10% growth clip.

Further, the agency notes that the EU is gearing up to lower its reliance on the larger producer fossil fuel imports by accelerating the clean energy transition.

The IEA has given a poor prognosis for the coming year, too: “As of mid-2022, we expect global electricity demand growth in 2023 to remain on a similar path as this year. Strong renewables growth of 8% and recovering nuclear generation could displace some gas and coal power, resulting in the electricity sector’s CO2 emissions declining by 1%,” the IEA has predicted in its report.

If accurate, falling electricity demand is likely to be bad news for natural gas producers, with fossil fuels accounting for a whooping 25% of global electricity generation.

In more bad news for natural gas punters, the European Union has proposed to member states Wednesday to cut gas usage by 15% until March as it braces for the "likely scenario" that the lager producer could cut off gas flows to Europe.