? 高企的燃料價(jià)格開始對石油消費(fèi)構(gòu)成壓力。  

? 國際能源署（IEA）大幅下調(diào)今年全球石油需求預(yù)測，將日需求量增長預(yù)測下調(diào)10萬桶。

? IEA表示：“油價(jià)上漲和經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境惡化已開始對石油需求造成影響?！?/strong>

據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月13日報(bào)道，國際能源署（IEA）周三表示，由于高油價(jià)打壓消費(fèi)，預(yù)計(jì)今年全球石油日需求將增加170萬桶，把其對今年全球石油日需求增長預(yù)期下調(diào)10萬桶。  

IEA在今日發(fā)布的備受關(guān)注的《石油市場報(bào)告》（OMR）中表示：“油價(jià)上漲和經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境惡化已開始對全球石油需求造成影響，但強(qiáng)勁的發(fā)電需求和亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇正在部分抵消這一影響。”

IEA在7月份的預(yù)測中表示，今年全球石油日總需求預(yù)計(jì)將平均達(dá)到9920萬桶，同比日增170萬桶。 

今年6月，IEA曾預(yù)計(jì)，今年全球石油日需求將以180萬桶的速度增長。一個(gè)月前，IEA曾預(yù)計(jì)2023年全球石油日需求將進(jìn)一步增加220萬桶，至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1.016億桶。IEA今天發(fā)布的報(bào)告將明年全球石油日需求增長預(yù)期下調(diào)10萬桶，降至210萬桶。 

IEA表示，2023年全球石油需求增長將受到發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體強(qiáng)勁增長趨勢的推動。然而，IEA警告稱：“石油市場的前景很少像現(xiàn)在這樣不確定?！?/p>

IEA表示：“目前，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體弱于預(yù)期的石油需求增長，以及產(chǎn)能大國供應(yīng)的彈性，已導(dǎo)致總體平衡出現(xiàn)松動。”

IEA表示，燃料價(jià)格高企已開始削弱經(jīng)合組織的石油消費(fèi)，但這在很大程度上被以亞洲大國為首的新興和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體強(qiáng)于預(yù)期的需求反彈所抵消。 

IEA指出，盡管自6月以來，由于對經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的預(yù)期和對衰退的擔(dān)憂，石油市場情緒顯著惡化，但“由于原油和石油產(chǎn)品的季節(jié)性需求上升，而供應(yīng)仍然緊張，原油價(jià)格溢價(jià)實(shí)際擴(kuò)大了”。

“由于歐盟對石油禁運(yùn)將于今年年底全面生效，石油市場可能再次吃緊。由于上游和下游現(xiàn)成的備用產(chǎn)能都處于低位，可能需要需求方采取措施降低消費(fèi)和燃料成本，這對穩(wěn)定構(gòu)成了威脅，尤其是在新興市場。”IEA如是表示。 

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

IEA Slashes Oil Forecast As Demand Destruction Looms Over The Market

·     High fuel prices is beginning to weigh on consumption.

·     The IEA has slashed its demand forecast, revising down its estimates by 100,000 bpd.

·    “Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand,” the agency said.

Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year compared to 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, revising down by 100,000 bpd its demand growth estimate on the back of high prices weighing on consumption.

“Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand, but strong power generation use and a recovery in Asia are providing a partial offset,” the agency said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) published today.

Total global oil demand is expected to average 99.2 million bpd in 2022, up by 1.7 million bpd compared to 2021, the IEA said in its July forecast.

In June, the agency had expected annual growth of 1.8 million bpd in oil demand for 2022. A month ago, the IEA saw 2023 demand rising further by 2.2 million bpd to a record 101.6 million bpd. Today’s report downgrades the forecast by 100,000 bpd to an expected increase of 2.1 million bpd next year.

Demand growth is 2023 is set to be driven by a strong growth trend in developing economies, the agency said.

However, the IEA warned that “Rarely has the outlook for oil markets been more uncertain.”

“For now, weaker-than-expected oil demand growth in advanced economies and resilient supply has loosened headline balances,” according to the agency.

High fuel prices have already started to dent oil consumption in the OECD, but this was largely offset by a stronger-than-expected demand rebound in emerging and developing economies led by the biggest country in Aisa, the IEA said.

While oil market sentiment has materially deteriorated since June amid expectations of economic slowdown and fears of recession, “price premiums for physical barrels widened on rising seasonal demand for both crude and products while supply remains constrained,” the agency noted.

“As an EU embargo on oil is set to come into full force at the end of the year, the oil market may tighten once again. With readily available spare capacity running low in both the upstream and downstream, it may be up to demand side measures to bring down consumption and fuel costs that pose a threat to stability, most notably in emerging markets,” said the IEA.