氫氣正在世界各地蓬勃發(fā)展，而沙特渴望從中分一杯羹

氫氣和氫基燃料可以取代灰色氫氣，增強(qiáng)沙特一系列產(chǎn)品的出口潛力

沙特已經(jīng)是煉油行業(yè)和化工行業(yè)的氫氣消費(fèi)大國(guó)

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，當(dāng)世界開始建設(shè)未來氫氣經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施時(shí)，無碳?xì)錃獾娜蛸Q(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)正變得越來越清晰。沙特是預(yù)計(jì)將在這個(gè)未來市場(chǎng)中找到重大機(jī)會(huì)的國(guó)家之一。

根據(jù)利雅得一家著名研究機(jī)構(gòu)最近一份報(bào)告，電解生產(chǎn)的綠色氫氣將在2030年開始運(yùn)往丹麥鹿特丹港，其價(jià)格與歐洲氫氣相當(dāng)有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，這在一定程度上取決于所用的運(yùn)輸方式。

研究人員還看到沙特國(guó)內(nèi)工業(yè)中氫氣的巨大潛力。由于全球碳排放成本上升，氫氣和氫基燃料可能取代灰色氫氣，這將增強(qiáng)沙特一系列產(chǎn)品的出口潛力。

研究人員看到藍(lán)色氫氣（碳捕獲）和綠色氫氣（可再生能源）的巨大潛力，兩種氫氣的技術(shù)和生產(chǎn)成本都在逐漸下降。研究人員對(duì)藍(lán)色氫氣的前景較最近的一些分析更為樂觀，這些分析人員預(yù)測(cè)，到2030年前，綠色氫氣在全球許多地區(qū)的價(jià)格將超過藍(lán)色氫氣。

但沙特在生產(chǎn)兩種低成本氫氣方面的明顯優(yōu)勢(shì)，可能會(huì)讓它長(zhǎng)期開發(fā)這兩種氫氣。因此，研究人員提倡一種平衡的方法，即國(guó)家內(nèi)部的地區(qū)專業(yè)化。

現(xiàn)實(shí)假設(shè)  

這份題為《沙特氫氣生產(chǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和資源潛力》的報(bào)告是由阿卜杜拉國(guó)王石油研究中心(KAPSARC)在今年3月份對(duì)外發(fā)布的。

KAPSARC的研究人員基于對(duì)沙特天然氣價(jià)格和可再生能源發(fā)電成本的現(xiàn)實(shí)假設(shè)，研究了現(xiàn)實(shí)的成本情景。KAPSARC的研究人員還仔細(xì)考慮了電解系統(tǒng)的預(yù)期成本和利用率等因素。

沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)是煉油行業(yè)和化工行業(yè)的氫氣消費(fèi)大國(guó)；主要是高碳排放產(chǎn)生的“灰色”氫氣。到目前為止，這是生產(chǎn)天然氣最便宜的方式，價(jià)格約為每公斤0.90美元。但在未來幾年，藍(lán)色氫氣，尤其是綠色氫氣的成本預(yù)計(jì)將大幅下降。

藍(lán)色氫氣的優(yōu)勢(shì)在于沙特的巨大天然氣產(chǎn)量和其封閉的市場(chǎng)。沙特既不出口也不進(jìn)口天然氣，從而保持著較低的價(jià)格，目前為每百萬英熱單位1.25美元。按照這個(gè)價(jià)格，到2030年前，生產(chǎn)藍(lán)色氫氣的成本將從目前的每公斤1.34美元下降到1.13美元。這是假設(shè)隨著碳捕獲與儲(chǔ)存(CCS)方法的推廣，成本不斷降低。

綠色氫氣的成本高度依賴于可再生能源和電解所需的電力成本。根據(jù)每兆瓦時(shí)18.3美元(沙特新太陽能項(xiàng)目的平均拍賣價(jià)格)的電價(jià)計(jì)算，綠色氫氣目前價(jià)格為每公斤2.16美元。研究人員認(rèn)為，如果可再生電力成本降至每兆瓦時(shí)13美元，到2030年前，綠色氫氣成本將降至每公斤1.48美元。

到2050年前，沙特的綠色氫氣生產(chǎn)成本可能進(jìn)一步下降到每公斤1美元。達(dá)到每公斤1美元的目標(biāo)假設(shè)電解槽的投資費(fèi)用降至每千瓦400美元，而可再生電力成本降至每兆瓦時(shí)10美元以下，這兩種情況都是現(xiàn)實(shí)的。  

研究人員看到沙特在可再生電力生產(chǎn)中實(shí)現(xiàn)高利用率的能力的巨大優(yōu)勢(shì)。他們聲稱，沙特可再生能源生產(chǎn)的利用率可以達(dá)到60%；太陽能光伏-風(fēng)能混合系統(tǒng)是可能的。事實(shí)上，沙特阿拉伯的大片地區(qū)，尤其是西部地區(qū)，有利太陽能和風(fēng)能的生產(chǎn)。這大大超過了歐洲的風(fēng)力發(fā)電，后者的利用率約為35%。

然而，有了這一優(yōu)勢(shì)，沙特仍然需要以某種形式實(shí)施碳價(jià)格。報(bào)告稱，按照目前國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣價(jià)格為每百萬英熱1.25美元，碳價(jià)約為每噸65美元，到2030年前，綠色氫氣將與灰色氫氣競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。 

加快出口

假設(shè)到2030年前綠色氫氣的生產(chǎn)成本為每公斤1.48美元，那么從沙特西部地區(qū)通過蘇伊士運(yùn)河將氫氣運(yùn)送到鹿特丹港的成本可能相當(dāng)有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

為了估算這個(gè)生產(chǎn)成本，研究人員還對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)化為載體、運(yùn)輸和脫氫的成本進(jìn)行了假設(shè)。他們認(rèn)為，液態(tài)氫氣可以在2030年抵達(dá)鹿特丹港，平均運(yùn)輸成本約為每公斤3.5美元至4.5美元。根據(jù)最近的研究，到2030年，歐洲綠色制氫的成本將在每公斤3美元到5美元之間。

雖然沙特向歐洲出口氫氣的價(jià)格似乎具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，但這在很大程度上取決于使用的載體類型。海上運(yùn)輸液氫的方法，或以液態(tài)有機(jī)氫載體(LOHC)的形式，仍在發(fā)展中。氨氣是氫能的載體，但如果需要純氫氣，則需要將氨氣裂解回氫氣(脫氫)。根據(jù)最近的研究，這將每公斤增加1美元到2美元不等的額外成本。

為了避免這種潛在的成本增加，KAPSARC的研究人員建議沙特生產(chǎn)商尋找機(jī)會(huì)直接使用氨氣，無論是藍(lán)色還是綠色。用灰色氨氣代替化肥的生產(chǎn)可以找到市場(chǎng)。新的應(yīng)用，如日本用于發(fā)電的藍(lán)色氨氣，也可能帶來出口機(jī)會(huì)。

研究人員還倡導(dǎo)沙特國(guó)內(nèi)的脫碳化工業(yè)，如合成氨和甲醇工廠，通過將它們轉(zhuǎn)換為低成本的藍(lán)色或綠色氫氣。這種轉(zhuǎn)變可能會(huì)擴(kuò)大到國(guó)內(nèi)其他行業(yè)，如鋼鐵、水泥和鋁。研究人員還看到交通運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域的潛力，包括新的燃料電池應(yīng)用和可持續(xù)的航空燃料。

這一戰(zhàn)略可以降低沙特的碳足跡，同時(shí)也為沙特出口碳中和產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)開辟新的機(jī)會(huì)。低碳?xì)錃鈱⒔档驮S多行業(yè)成品的碳含量，從而在全球碳政策變得更加嚴(yán)格的情況下更好地定位它們?cè)趪?guó)際市場(chǎng)上的地位。 

地區(qū)綠色和藍(lán)色氫氣戰(zhàn)略

沙特廣闊的領(lǐng)土表明，氫氣生產(chǎn)的地區(qū)專業(yè)化是可行的。KAPSARC的報(bào)告認(rèn)為，這兩個(gè)一般地區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和自然特征的獨(dú)特組合可以使氫氣——無論是綠色氫氣還是藍(lán)色氫氣——的生產(chǎn)成本在世界上最低。

沙特東部地區(qū)擁有巨大的石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)、煉油和化學(xué)工業(yè)設(shè)備，有很多基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支持藍(lán)色氫氣工業(yè)的發(fā)展。這包括獲得深層含鹽水層用于二氧化碳儲(chǔ)存。

沙特西部地區(qū)擁有非常強(qiáng)大的太陽能和風(fēng)能資源，可以生產(chǎn)低成本的電力，用于生產(chǎn)綠色氫氣。位于沙特西北部的NEOM項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)成為世界上最大的綠色氨氣生產(chǎn)工廠之一。其生產(chǎn)的氫氣將用于生產(chǎn)主要用于出口的氨氣。

這些獨(dú)特的地區(qū)優(yōu)勢(shì)可能使沙特追求廣泛的氫氣戰(zhàn)略，包括綠色氫氣和藍(lán)色氫氣。

這種地區(qū)綠色氫氣和藍(lán)色氫氣戰(zhàn)略是否可行，將取決于藍(lán)色氫氣和綠色氫氣的相對(duì)成本。彭博新能源最近分析了28個(gè)國(guó)家的成本，結(jié)果顯示，到2030年，藍(lán)色氫氣在世界上的很多地方都無法使用。根據(jù)這項(xiàng)分析，即使在美國(guó)這樣天然氣相對(duì)便宜的國(guó)家，到2030年，來自可再生能源的綠色氫氣的生產(chǎn)成本也將低于藍(lán)色氫氣。

但是沙特的情況可能不同，它不在彭博新能源建模的國(guó)家中。彭博新能源貿(mào)易和供應(yīng)鏈主管瓊斯表示：“藍(lán)色氫氣的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力將取決于從沙特國(guó)家石油公司獲得的天然氣價(jià)格?！彼壳罢谧珜懸环蓐P(guān)于中東和北非氫氣出口的報(bào)告。

瓊斯說：“現(xiàn)有的生產(chǎn)、運(yùn)輸和儲(chǔ)存基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，以及當(dāng)?shù)氐挠蜌鈨r(jià)值鏈，當(dāng)然是擴(kuò)大藍(lán)色氫氣規(guī)模的優(yōu)勢(shì)?！?/p>

瓊斯警告說，藍(lán)色氫氣出口的機(jī)會(huì)可能會(huì)受到競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和外部約束的限制。歐洲對(duì)進(jìn)口氫氣的新興需求可能會(huì)受到綠色氫氣授權(quán)的限制。與此同時(shí)，那些希望進(jìn)口藍(lán)色氫氣的國(guó)家，比如日本，可能會(huì)找到一個(gè)距離更近的低成本供應(yīng)國(guó)，即澳大利亞。

因此，瓊斯認(rèn)為沙特的綠色氫氣將用于出口，而其藍(lán)色氫氣將有助于當(dāng)?shù)孛撎細(xì)錃庀M(fèi)（2019年為每年229萬噸，是目前中東消費(fèi)最大的）。

瓊斯說：“當(dāng)?shù)氐幕疑珰錃庥糜谏a(chǎn)甲醇和成品油產(chǎn)品，這兩個(gè)行業(yè)都是低碳?xì)錃饫玫母邼摿π袠I(yè)?！?nbsp;

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下:

Saudi Arabia Bets Big On Blue Hydrogen

Hydrogen is booming, and Saudi Arabia is racing to get a piece of the pie.

Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels could replace gray hydrogen, strengthening Saudi export potential in a range of products

Saudi Arabia is already a large consumer of hydrogen for its refinery and chemicals industries.

While the world begins to build the infrastructure of a future hydrogen economy, the economics of global trade in carbon-free hydrogen are becoming more clear. Among countries expected to find significant opportunities in that future market is Saudi Arabia.  

According to a recent report from a notable Riyadh-based research institute, green hydrogen produced from electrolysis could begin to ship to the Port of Rotterdam in 2030 at prices quite competitive with European hydrogen, depending partly upon the shipping method used. 

The researchers also see significant potential for hydrogen in KSA’s domestic industry. Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels could replace gray hydrogen, strengthening Saudi export potential in a range of products as more costs are imposed on carbon emissions worldwide. 

They see great potential for both blue (with carbon capture) and green (with renewable energy) hydrogen, with technology and production costs gradually falling for both types. Their outlook for blue is more positive than that of some recent analyses, which foresees green hydrogen beating blue on price in many regions of the world by 2030. 

But Saudi Arabia’s apparent advantages in producing low-cost hydrogen of both types may allow it to develop each for the long term. Therefore the researchers advocate a balanced approach, anticipating regional specialization within the country.

Realistic assumptions

The report, “The Economics and Resource Potential of Hydrogen Production in Saudi Arabia” by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), was issued in March. 

The KAPSARC researchers look at realistic cost scenarios based on realistic assumptions about the price of natural gas in Saudi Arabia, and the cost of electricity from renewable sources. The anticipated costs and capacity factors of electrolysis systems are also carefully considered. 

Saudi Arabia is already a large consumer of hydrogen for its refinery and chemicals industries; primarily ‘gray’ hydrogen produced with high carbon emissions. It is by far the cheapest way to produce the gas at about $0.90/kg. But costs of blue and especially green hydrogen are expected to decline substantially in the next few years.

Blue hydrogen gains an advantage from Saudi Arabia’s huge production of natural gas and its closed market for it. KSA neither exports nor imports natural gas and maintains a low price, currently at $1.25/MMBtu. At this price, the cost of producing blue hydrogen could fall from the current $1.34/kg to $1.13/kg by 2030. This assumes ongoing cost reductions in carbon capture & storage (CCS) methods as these scale up.  

The cost of green hydrogen is highly dependent on the cost of electricity from renewable sources and electrolysis. It is $2.16/kg today based on an electricity price of $18.3/MWh (an average of auction prices for new solar projects in Saudi Arabia). The researchers see that this cost could fall to $1.48/kg by 2030, if renewable energy costs fall to $13/MWh. 

The cost of green hydrogen production in KSA could fall further to $1/kg by 2050. Reaching the vaunted $1/kg target assumes electrolyser capital costs drop to $400 per kilowatt, with renewable energy costs falling below $10/MWh, both realistic scenarios. 

The researchers see an enormous advantage in KSA’s ability to achieve high capacity factors in its production of renewable electricity. They assert that capacity factors can reach 60% in the production of renewable power in Saudi Arabia; that it is possible with a PV-Wind hybrid system. In fact, large areas of the country, especially in the western region, are favorable for diurnal (day and night) solar and wind energy production. This greatly surpasses, for example, wind power in Europe with capacity factors of approximately 35%. 

With this advantage, however, a carbon price in some form will still need to be imposed in Saudi Arabia. The report says that green hydrogen will be competitive with grey hydrogen by 2030, at the current domestic natural gas price of $1.25/MMBtu and a carbon price of about $65 per tonne. 

Expediting exports 

Assuming a green hydrogen production cost of $1.48/kg by 2030, the delivered cost of hydrogen from Saudi Arabia’s western region to the Port of Rotterdam via the Suez Canal can be quite competitive.  

To estimate it, the researchers also make assumptions about conversion to carrier, shipping and dehydrogenation costs. They think liquid hydrogen can arrive at Rotterdam in 2030 with a delivery cost averaging between about $3.50/kg and $4.50/kg. This compares favorably to the expected cost of green hydrogen production in Europe, which according to recent research will be between $3/kg and $5/kg in 2030. 

While it appears that Saudi hydrogen exports to Europe can be competitively priced, much will depend on the type of carrier used. Methods for the sea transport of liquid hydrogen, or in the form of a liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC), are still in development. Ammonia is a proven carrier of hydrogen energy, but it requires cracking the ammonia back to hydrogen (dehydrogenation) if pure hydrogen is needed. This adds an additional cost ranging from $1/kg to $2/kg according to recent research. 

To avoid this potential cost, the KAPSARC researchers suggest that Saudi producers look for opportunities to trade ammonia for direct use, whether blue or green. Markets may be found by substituting for gray ammonia in the production of fertilizers. New applications, such as blue ammonia for power generation in Japan, may also open opportunities for export. 

They also advocate for de-carbonizing domestic industries, such as ammonia and methanol plants, by switching them to low-cost blue or green hydrogen. This conversion could extend to other domestic industries, such as steel, cement and aluminum. The researchers also see potential in the transport sector, with new fuel cell applications and sustainable jet fuel. 

This strategy could lower the country’s carbon footprint while also opening new opportunities for the production of carbon-neutral products for export. Low-carbon hydrogen would lower the carbon content of many industries’ finished products, thereby better positioning them for international markets as carbon policies become more stringent worldwide.

Regions green and blue

Saudi Arabia’s vast territory suggests that regional specialization for hydrogen production is feasible. The KAPSARC report sees two general regions where unique combinations of infrastructure and natural features could make hydrogen production costs among the lowest in the world, for both green and blue hydrogen. 

The country’s eastern region, with its great apparatus of oil and gas production, refining, and chemical industries, has much of the infrastructure in place to support the development of a blue hydrogen industry. This includes access to deep saline aquifers for CO2 storage.

The western region enjoys very strong solar and wind resources to produce low-cost electricity for green hydrogen production. The NEOM project, in the northwest, is already the site of what is planned to be one of the largest green ammonia production plants in the world. Its hydrogen will be used to produce ammonia intended largely for export. 

These unique regional advantages may allow KSA to pursue a broad hydrogen strategy that encompasses both green and blue hydrogen.

Whether such a regional strategy proves viable will depend on the relative costs of blue and green hydrogen. Recent analysis by BloombergNEF, which looks at costs in 28 countries, shows that blue hydrogen will not be viable in many parts of the world in 2030. Even in countries such as the United States, with relatively inexpensive natural gas, green hydrogen from renewable power will cost less to produce than blue hydrogen in 2030, according to this analysis.  

But the case may be different in KSA, which was not among the countries modeled in the BloombergNEF analysis. 

“The competitiveness of blue hydrogen would depend on the price at which gas is acquired from Aramco,” says Antoine Vagneur-Jones, head of Trade and Supply Chains at BloombergNEF, currently working on a forthcoming report on Middle East & North Africa hydrogen exports. 

“Existing production, transport and storage infrastructure, and a local hydrocarbon value chains are of course advantages when scaling blue H2,” he says. 

Vagneur-Jones cautions that opportunities for blue hydrogen export may be limited by competition and by external constraints. Europe’s emerging demand for hydrogen imports may be restricted by the mandate for green hydrogen. Meanwhile, places looking to import blue hydrogen, such as Japan, may find a closer low-cost supplier, namely Australia. 

Therefore he thinks that Saudi Arabia’s green hydrogen is destined for export while its blue variety will help decarbonize local hydrogen consumption (which, at 2.29 million metric tons per year in 2019, is the largest in the Middle East by far). 

“Local gray hydrogen is used to make methanol and refined oil products, both of which are high potential sectors for low-carbon hydrogen use,” he says.