歐洲為減少對大國天然氣依賴，不得不進口大量的液化天然氣

雖然液化天然氣價格可能不會回到之前的高位，但分析師預計，未來幾年價格還會上漲

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)5月28日消息，自地緣政治沖突顛覆了全球能源市場以來，液化天然氣行業(yè)一直在努力應對許多不確定性。事實上，唯一真正確定的是，現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣價格將在未來幾年保持高位，即使它們不會再次觸及最近的歷史新高。歐洲和亞洲的主要需求中心在供暖季節(jié)結(jié)束和明年冬季（北半球的需求高峰期）到來之前都面臨著一系列不確定性。

不確定性包括歐洲將在明年11月之前將設法填滿多少庫存，以及亞洲在今年迄今需求低迷后，將有多少現(xiàn)貨市場購買以備冬。

液化天然氣的供需也將取決于在停止向波蘭、保加利亞和芬蘭的供應后是否會切斷對更多歐盟客戶的供應，以及明年冬天歐洲和亞洲的寒冷程度。

殼牌能源執(zhí)行副總裁Steve Hill本周在韓國舉行的世界天然氣大會上表示：“我們對下一步會發(fā)生什么存在巨大的不確定性?！?/p>

路透社報道，Hill說：“如果我們將2021年進入歐洲的大國管道天然氣量轉(zhuǎn)換為液化天然氣當量，再加上2021年輸送到歐洲的液化天然氣量，這相當于2億噸液化天然氣當量。這是當前（全球）液化天然氣行業(yè)規(guī)模的一半?！?/p>

很明顯，歐洲將無法很快用液化天然氣取代所有的大國管道天然氣。世界沒有那么多供應能力，要到本世紀中期的某個時候才會有。預計2026年及之后，隨著美國正在開發(fā)的項目和卡塔爾擴大產(chǎn)能的投產(chǎn)，預計將有更多的液化天然氣進入市場。

自去年秋季能源危機以來，歐洲已取代亞洲成為液化天然氣需求的增長動力，不再是液化天然氣貨物的“最后市場”。地緣沖突進一步促使歐洲開始減少對大國管道天然氣的嚴重依賴，沒有管道天然氣，歐洲大陸目前面臨著嚴重的工業(yè)放緩風險，并急于確保明年冬天的供暖。

根據(jù)歐洲天然氣基礎設施的數(shù)據(jù)，截至5月26日，歐盟的天然氣存儲容量已超過44.45%，而英國的天然氣儲存容量已超過91% 。

歐洲的儲存水平在一年中的這個時候已恢復到正常水平，但今年全球能源市場沒有任何正常情況，因此預計歐洲的液化天然氣需求將在下一個冬季開始之前保持高位。此外，歐盟成員國現(xiàn)在必須在11月1日之前達到至少80%的儲氣水平，以防止?jié)撛诘墓袛?。?023 年開始，到11月1日，目標將提高到90%的儲氣量。

歐盟能源專員Kadri Simson上周表示：“在明年冬天之前填充歐盟的天然氣儲存對于確保我們的供應安全至關(guān)重要。”

盡管與去年相比，歐洲將繼續(xù)競相購買更多數(shù)量的液化天然氣，但亞洲的需求前景卻不太確定。伍德麥肯茲估計，2022年第一季度亞洲液化天然氣進口量同比下降10%，日本和印度的進口量分別下降14%和25%。WoodMac表示，與2021年相比，現(xiàn)在預計今年亞洲整體液化天然氣需求將持平。

高昂的液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨價格讓亞洲買家望而卻步，而市場波動和不確定性以及對能源安全的擔憂促使越來越多的買家尋求長期合同。 

伍德麥肯茲全球天然氣供應首席分析師Kateryna Filippenko上周表示，液化天然氣供應競賽可能會引發(fā)第二波美國液化天然氣項目，但新的供應需要時間。

但大部分新的液化天然氣供應，包括前幾年采用FIDs的項目，可能要到2026年之后才會出現(xiàn)。

Filippenko指出，直到2026年左右，“歐洲將不得不與亞洲競爭邊緣液化天然氣市場，以滿足需求——就像現(xiàn)在一樣”。

“在2026年后新的供應浪潮到來之前，歐洲和亞洲對有限液化天然氣的競爭將非常激烈。在那之前，價格將不可避免地保持高位?！?nbsp;

祝精燕 摘譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Expect High LNG Prices For Years To Come

The war has upended global energy markets, including the LNG industry.

Europe’s push to reduce its dependence on the world’s largest oil producer's  gas has left it importing massive amounts of LNG.

While LNG prices may not return to previous highs, analysts expect elevated prices for years to come.

Since the war upended global energy markets, the LNG industry has been grappling with many uncertainties. In fact, the only real certainty is that spot LNG prices will remain elevated for years to come, even if they don't hit the most recent record highs again.  Key demand centers in Europe and Asia are facing their own set of uncertainties at the end of the heating season and ahead of next winter, the peak demand period in the northern hemisphere.

Uncertainties range from how much Europe will have managed to fill its storage capacity by next November, to how much Asia will buy on the spot market to stock for the winter after lackluster demand so far this year.

LNG supply and demand will also depend on whether the world’s largest oil producer will cut off supply to more EU customers after halting deliveries to Poland, Bulgaria, and Finland, and on how cold next winter will be in Europe and Asia.

"We have massive uncertainty over what will happen next," Steve Hill, Executive Vice President at Shell Energy, said at this week's World Gas Conference in South Korea.

"If we convert the Russian pipeline gas volume into Europe in 2021 into an LNG equivalent, and add on the LNG volumes delivered into Europe in 2021, that's 200 million tonnes of LNG equivalent. That's half the size of the current (global) LNG industry," Hill said, as carried by Reuters.

It's clear that Europe will not be able to replace all the world’s largest oil producer's pipeline gas with LNG soon. The world just doesn't have that much supply capacity and will not have it until some point in the middle of this decade. Larger volumes of LNG are expected to hit the market in 2026 and afterward, when the U.S. projects under development and Qatar's expanded capacity come on stream.

Since the energy crisis of last autumn, Europe has displaced Asia as the growth driver of LNG demand and is no longer "the market of last resort" for LNG cargoes. The war has further spurred Europe to start reducing its heavy reliance on the world’s largest oil producer's piped gas, without which the continent currently risks a severe industrial slowdown and a rush to secure heating for next winter.

As of May 26, gas storage capacity in the EU was 44.45% full, while in the UK, this capacity is over 91% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Storage levels in Europe are back to normal levels for this time of the year, but there is nothing normal in the global energy market this year, so LNG demand in Europe is expected to remain high through the start of the next winter season. Moreover, the EU member states are now required to reach a minimum 80% gas storage level by November 1 to protect against potential interruptions to supply. From 2023, the target will be raised to 90% full gas storage by November 1.

"Filling the EU's gas storage before the next winter is crucial for ensuring our security of supply," European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson said last week.

While Europe will continue to race to buy much higher volumes of LNG compared to last year, the demand outlook in Asia is less certain. Asian LNG imports fell 10% year-on-year in Q1 2022, with Japanese, and Indian imports down 14%, and 25%, respectively, Wood Mackenzie has estimated. Overall Asian LNG demand is now expected to be flat this year compared to 2021, WoodMac says.

High spot LNG prices have priced out Asian buyers, while market volatility and uncertainties, and concerns about energy security have prompted a growing number of buyers to seek long-term contracts. 

The race for LNG supply could give rise to the second wave of U.S. LNG projects, but new supply will take time to develop, Kateryna Filippenko, Principal Analyst, Global Gas Supply, at Wood Mackenzie, said last week.

But much of this new LNG supply, including from projects that have taken FIDs in previous years, is likely to come only after 2026.

Until around 2026, "Europe will have to compete with Asia for the marginal LNG molecule to satisfy demand – just as it is right now," Filippenko noted.

"Competition between Europe and Asia for limited LNG will be intense until a new supply wave arrives after 2026. Prices will inevitably remain elevated until then."