據(jù)阿拉伯貿(mào)易4月17日消息，根據(jù)國際能源署(IEA)最新的季度更新，由于價(jià)格上漲和市場混亂，2022年世界對(duì)天然氣的需求將略有下降。

與國際能源署在1月份發(fā)布的上一季度更新中預(yù)測的1%增長相比，預(yù)計(jì)全球天然氣需求將小幅收縮。預(yù)測值下調(diào)500億立方米，相當(dāng)于去年美國液化天然氣出口量的一半左右。2021年全球天然氣消費(fèi)量增長了4.5%。

本已緊張的天然氣市場增加了進(jìn)一步的壓力和不確定性，尤其是在歐洲。雖然目前對(duì)向歐盟進(jìn)口大國天然氣沒有法律限制，但戰(zhàn)爭已促使歐盟各國政府尋求盡快減少對(duì)大國化石燃料進(jìn)口的依賴。

由于歐洲推動(dòng)更加多樣化的天然氣供應(yīng)，加劇了對(duì)液化天然氣貨物的需求，其中一些貨物已從亞洲轉(zhuǎn)移，現(xiàn)貨天然氣價(jià)格飆升至歷史新高。2021年至2022年供暖季節(jié)，亞洲的平均現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣價(jià)格是五年平均水平的四倍多。

在歐洲，盡管冬季氣候溫和，液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格仍是五年平均水平的五倍。

國際能源署能源市場與安全主管Keisuke Sadamori說：“這引發(fā)了重大的能源供應(yīng)和安全危機(jī)?！?/p>

“雖然隨著歐洲減少對(duì)大國天然氣的依賴，液化天然氣供應(yīng)的激烈競爭是不可避免的，但應(yīng)對(duì)當(dāng)今能源挑戰(zhàn)的最佳和最持久的解決方案將是加快我們經(jīng)濟(jì)體的能源效率提高，并加速從化石燃料向低碳能源的過渡，包括國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的低碳?xì)怏w?！?/p>

歐洲今年的天然氣消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)將下降近6%。在亞洲，預(yù)計(jì)2022年將增長3%，與2021年7%的增長相比明顯放緩。預(yù)計(jì)美洲、非洲和中東等地區(qū)受天然氣市場波動(dòng)的直接影響較小，因?yàn)樗鼈冎饕揽繃鴥?nèi)天然氣生產(chǎn)。

但國際能源署的報(bào)告稱，更廣泛經(jīng)濟(jì)影響仍在繼續(xù)，包括商品價(jià)格上漲、購買力下降以及商業(yè)信心下降導(dǎo)致的投資減少。

祝精燕 摘譯自 阿拉伯貿(mào)易

原文如下：

Natural gas demand set to edge down in 2022: IEA

The world’s demand for natural gas is set to decline slightly in 2022 as a result of higher prices and market disruptions, according to the International Energy Agency’s l(IEA) latest quarterly update.

The expected small contraction in global gas demand compares with the IEA’s earlier forecast of 1% growth in the previous quarterly update published in January. The downward revision to the forecast amounts to 50 billion cum, the equivalent of about half of last year’s US liquefied natural gas exports. Global natural gas consumption grew by 4.5% in 2021.

It has added further pressure and uncertainty to an already tight natural gas market, especially in Europe. While there are no legal restrictions on importing natural gas to the European Union at this point, the war has pushed EU governments to seek to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuel imports as quickly as possible.

Spot gas prices have soared to record highs as Europe’s push for more diversified natural gas supply has intensified demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes, with some being diverted away from Asia. Average spot LNG prices in Asia during the 2021-22 heating season were more than four times their five-year average.

In Europe, spot LNG prices were five times their five-year average, in spite of a mild winter. The prices were also boosted by moves,to drastically reduce short-term gas sales to Europe, which had left European storage levels 17% below their five-year average at the start of the European heating season.

“It has also triggered a major energy supply and security crisis,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA Director for Energy Markets and Security.

“While stiffer competition for LNG supplies is inevitable as Europe reduces its reliance on gas, the best and most lasting solution to today’s energy challenges would be to accelerate energy efficiency improvements across our economies and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels towards low-carbon sources of energy, including domestically produced low-carbon gases.”

Natural gas consumption this year is expected to fall by close to 6% in Europe. In Asia, it is expected to grow by 3% in 2022, a marked slowdown from growth of 7% in 2021. Regions such as the Americas, Africa and the Middle East are expected to be affected less directly by gas market volatility, as they principally rely on domestic gas production.

But they are nonetheless being affected by the wider economic impacts including rising commodity prices, weaker purchasing power and lower investment due to dented business confidence, the IEA report said.