?隨著閑置產(chǎn)能繼續(xù)減少，儲(chǔ)備替代率下降，世界可能很快就會(huì)面臨嚴(yán)重的石油供應(yīng)短缺

?2021年，新的油氣礦藏發(fā)現(xiàn)數(shù)量可能達(dá)到75年來(lái)的最低水平，這凸顯出未來(lái)生產(chǎn)面臨的一個(gè)重大問(wèn)題

?ESG（環(huán)境、社會(huì)和治理）投資熱潮和激進(jìn)投資者將資金從石油行業(yè)撤出，這可能會(huì)增加能源轉(zhuǎn)型的難度和成本

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)1月12日消息，歐洲天然氣危機(jī)幾個(gè)月來(lái)一直占據(jù)著新聞?lì)^條，這是有原因的——?dú)W洲大陸仍在努力確保足夠的能源滿足其冬季需求。但世界可能會(huì)面臨更嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)，那就是石油危機(jī)。所有人都可以看到這些跡象:歐佩克的閑置產(chǎn)能正在減少，新發(fā)現(xiàn)的油氣資源處于歷史低點(diǎn)，由于ESG投資的興起，銀行越來(lái)越不愿意參與油氣行業(yè)。與此同時(shí)，大型石油公司在專(zhuān)注于發(fā)展低碳業(yè)務(wù)的同時(shí)，也在限制產(chǎn)量。

產(chǎn)能危機(jī)?

國(guó)際能源署(IEA)在其 2021 年 10 月的石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中表示：“全球閑置產(chǎn)能的萎縮凸顯了增加投資以滿足未來(lái)需求的必要性?！彪S著歐佩克在其回歸正常協(xié)議下提高產(chǎn)量，其閑置產(chǎn)能將大幅下降，到今年第四季度可能僅達(dá)到400萬(wàn)桶/天。這將比2021年初的900萬(wàn)桶/天下降一半以上。

閑置產(chǎn)能是衡量石油行業(yè)生產(chǎn)靈活性的一個(gè)重要指標(biāo)。IEA將其定義為可以在 90 天內(nèi)啟動(dòng)并持續(xù)較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的生產(chǎn)。美國(guó)能源部將閑置產(chǎn)能定義為可以在30天內(nèi)開(kāi)采并持續(xù)90天的產(chǎn)能。根據(jù)美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署(EIA)的數(shù)據(jù)，到今年年底，歐佩克的閑置產(chǎn)能可能降至511萬(wàn)桶/天。

IEA似乎并不確定自己想要什么——是加大對(duì)石油的投資，還是加大對(duì)可再生能源的投資。它在去年的不同場(chǎng)合呼吁這兩項(xiàng)。但從油價(jià)走勢(shì)來(lái)看，盡管歐佩克計(jì)劃轉(zhuǎn)向低碳能源，但其不斷萎縮的閑置產(chǎn)能確實(shí)令人擔(dān)憂。

進(jìn)一步加劇這種擔(dān)憂的是，歐佩克+的一些成員國(guó)正接近其閑置產(chǎn)能的極限，俄羅斯就是其中之一。據(jù)報(bào)道，世界上最大的石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)之一發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)其他歐佩克+成員國(guó)都在應(yīng)對(duì)同樣的問(wèn)題時(shí)，石油產(chǎn)量很難恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平。這意味著，即使需求繼續(xù)以目前的穩(wěn)定速度增長(zhǎng)，供應(yīng)可能也趕不上。

迫切需要:新油藏

挪威能源咨詢公司在去年12月的一份報(bào)告中表示，新發(fā)現(xiàn)的油氣資源可能已降至75年來(lái)的最低水平。去年新發(fā)現(xiàn)的總資源約為47億桶油當(dāng)量，低于疫情第一年發(fā)現(xiàn)的125億桶油當(dāng)量。

與此同時(shí)，在股東、維權(quán)人士和政府的壓力下，歐洲石油巨頭正有意減少石油產(chǎn)量，以符合向可再生能源發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略。所以，一方面，我們花在新供應(yīng)上的錢(qián)減少了，另一方面，我們有意減少了現(xiàn)有的供應(yīng)。

低發(fā)現(xiàn)水平意味著儲(chǔ)量替代率也下降了，油氣行業(yè)的低儲(chǔ)量替代率對(duì)未來(lái)的供應(yīng)來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)壞消息。沙特阿拉伯去年警告稱(chēng)，對(duì)新石油生產(chǎn)的投資不足可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致能源危機(jī)，但由于大家都預(yù)計(jì)沙特阿拉伯會(huì)說(shuō)這樣的話，所以這一警告并沒(méi)有得到多少關(guān)注。即使是這樣，提高石油新發(fā)現(xiàn)的速度也不像以前那么容易了。

銀行熱衷于ESG投資

ESG投資者的興起在金融業(yè)引起了不小的轟動(dòng)?；貓?bào)仍然是一個(gè)優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)，但它不再是唯一的最終優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)。如今，投資者想要知道他們的錢(qián)被以負(fù)責(zé)任的方式使用，以造福地球。這意味著他們?cè)絹?lái)越不愿意看到這些錢(qián)流向石油行業(yè)。

由于這一趨勢(shì)，銀行和資產(chǎn)管理公司正在重新考慮自己的業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略。資產(chǎn)管理公司正要求客戶做出減排承諾，否則將放棄這些客戶。銀行拒絕向石油業(yè)放貸，并威脅要放棄那些產(chǎn)生大量二氧化碳排放的客戶。

不僅僅是來(lái)自股東的壓力在引導(dǎo)銀行的行動(dòng)。監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)也在加大對(duì)銀行的壓力，要求根據(jù)氣候變化情景進(jìn)行新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估，并相應(yīng)收緊資本金要求。為避免受到監(jiān)管規(guī)定的束縛，銀行正在減少對(duì)石油和天然氣行業(yè)的敞口。

與此同時(shí)，石油需求似乎一如既往地健康，油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)顯示出強(qiáng)勁的上行潛力。那些以能源轉(zhuǎn)型為理由的看跌石油的人似乎忘記了一點(diǎn)，那就是這需要的時(shí)間遠(yuǎn)不止幾年。

正如油價(jià)信息服務(wù)公司的湯姆·克洛扎在為CNN撰寫(xiě)的一篇評(píng)論文章中所寫(xiě)的那樣，這也將是艱難的。

“一旦我們真正開(kāi)始遠(yuǎn)離化石燃料，這代價(jià)將是昂貴和痛苦的。否認(rèn)這些代價(jià)就像否認(rèn)氣候變化一樣虛偽，”克洛扎寫(xiě)道。這一論點(diǎn)以及我們?cè)诳捎^測(cè)的未來(lái)將繼續(xù)需要大量石油都是不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)。

裘寅 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Can The World Avoid A Global Oil Supply Crunch?

The world may soon face a major oil supply shortage as spare capacity continues to dwindle and reserve replacement rates fall

The number of new oil and gas discoveries may have hit a 75-year low in 2021, highlighting a major issue for future production

The ESG investing craze and activist investors have driven money away from the oil industry, which may add to the pain and cost of the energy transition 

The European gas crunch has been hogging headlines for months now, and with good reason - the continent is still struggling to secure enough energy for its winter needs. But there may be a worse crunch looming over the world, and that would be an oil crunch. The signs are there for everyone to see should they bother to look: OPEC’s spare capacity is dwindling, new discoveries are at historic lows, and banks are growing increasingly reluctant to engage with the oil and gas industry because of the rise of ESG investing. Meanwhile, supermajors are curbing their output as they focus on growing their low-carbon business.

A capacity crisis?

“Shrinking global spare capacity underscores the need for increased investments to meet demand further down the road,” the International Energy Agency said in its October 2021 Oil Market Report, after noting that as OPEC ramped up production under its return-to-normal deal, its spare production capacity will fall considerably, potentially reaching just 4 million bpd by the fourth quarter of this year. That would be down by more than half from 9 million bpd at the start of 2021.

Spare capacity is an important indicator of production flexibility in the oil world. The IEA defines it as production that can be launched within 90 days and sustained over an extended period of time. The U.S. Department of Energy defines spare capacity as production that can be tapped within 30 days and sustained for 90 days. According to the EIA, OPEC’s spare capacity could fall to 5.11 million bpd by the end of this year.

The IEA does not seem to be sure what it wants - more investments in oil or more investments in renewable energy. It called for both on different occasions last year. But based on oil price developments, it seems the shrinking spare capacity of the world’s oil cartel is indeed a cause for concern despite the planned shift to low-carbon energy.

What fuels this concern even further is that some members of the extended cartel OPEC+ are nearing the limit of their spare capacity, and Russia is among them. One of the world’s top producers, according to reports, is finding it difficult to return production to pre-pandemic levels at a time when other OPEC+ members are dealing with the same problem. This means that even if demand continues to grow at the current solid rate, supply may not be as quick to catch up.

Wanted: new oil discoveries

New oil and gas discoveries may have hit their lowest level in 75 years, Norwegian energy consultancy said in a December report. Total newly discovered resources last year stood at some 4.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which was down from 12.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered during the first pandemic year.

At the same time, European supermajors are deliberately reducing their oil production in line with the strategy to move toward renewable energy under pressure from shareholders, activists, and governments. So, on the one hand, we have less money being spent on new supply and on the other, we have a deliberate reduction in existing supply.

The low level of discoveries means that reserve replacement rates have fallen, too, and low reserve replacement rates in the oil and gas industry are bad news for future supply. Saudi Arabia warned last year that underinvestment in new oil production could lead to an energy crisis, but since everyone expects Saudi Arabia to say something like that, not a lot of attention was paid to the warning. And even if it was, boosting the rate of new oil discoveries is not as easy as it once was.

Banks on an ESG rampage

The rise of the ESG investor has made quite a splash in the financial industry. Returns are still a priority, but it is no longer the single ultimate priority. These days, investors want to know that their money is being used in a responsible way, for the good of the planet. And this means that they are increasingly reluctant to see this money going to the oil industry.

Because of this trend, banks and asset managers are rethinking their own business strategies. 

Asset managers are requiring their clients to make emission reduction commitments, threatening to drop them otherwise. Banks are refusing to lend to the oil industry and also threatening to drop clients that generate a lot of carbon dioxide emissions.

It isn’t just pressure from shareholders that is guiding lenders’ hands. Regulators are also turning up the heat on banks, requiring new risk assessments based on climate change scenarios and tightening capital requirements accordingly. To avoid being hamstrung by regulations, lenders are cutting their exposure to the apocalypse-bringing oil and gas industry.

Meanwhile, demand for oil appears to be as healthy as ever, and oil price forecasts are pointing to a solid upward potential. The thing that oil bears who cite the energy transition as the reason for their bearishness seem to be forgetting is that it will take a lot more than a couple of years.

It will also be tough, as Oil Price Information Service’s Tom Cloza wrote in an opinion piece for CNN. 

“once we really start moving away from fossil fuels, it will be expensive and painful. To deny that expense is as disingenuous as denying climate change,” Cloza wrote. To argue with this and with the fact that we will continue needing millions upon millions of barrels of oil for the observable future would be a waste of time.