據(jù)伍德麥肯茲1月17日?qǐng)?bào)道，自2021年以來，歐洲大陸一直處于一場(chǎng)供求危機(jī)中心，天然氣供應(yīng)的安全和靈活性，以及其在能源轉(zhuǎn)型中的角色一直是歐盟首要議程。

1月16日，伍德麥肯茲發(fā)布了《歐洲天然氣:2022年需要關(guān)注的5件事》報(bào)告，突出了未來幾十年影響歐洲和全球天然氣市場(chǎng)的關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域。

一是將俄羅斯天然氣輸送至德國(guó)的北溪2號(hào)(Nord Stream 2)管道可能要過了第一季度才會(huì)啟動(dòng)，這意味著俄羅斯即便供氣，在整個(gè)冬季的額外供應(yīng)也有限。

在正常天氣條件下，加上進(jìn)口量較低，到3月底，歐洲庫(kù)存將降至150億立方米以下，這將創(chuàng)下歷史新低。

隨著春天臨近，價(jià)格最終會(huì)下降，但對(duì)庫(kù)存的需求將比今年增加200億 - 250億立方米。

歐洲天然氣研究首席分析師Kateryna Filippenko表示，如果俄羅斯不增加出口，補(bǔ)充快要耗盡的庫(kù)存和避免2021年危機(jī)重演的能力將是有限的。到目前為止，俄氣一直不愿在現(xiàn)有線路上提供更多天然氣，而北溪2號(hào)項(xiàng)目的啟動(dòng)仍是一個(gè)巨大未知數(shù)，因?yàn)槎須膺€正在尋求監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)批準(zhǔn)。歐洲寒冷天氣可能會(huì)使情況進(jìn)一步惡化，整個(gè)冬季天然氣需求將增加到100億立方米，除非俄羅斯提供更多的天然氣，否則庫(kù)存水平將降至零，而歐洲可能不得不利用緩沖天然氣來平衡市場(chǎng)。包括亞洲在內(nèi)冬季天氣，以及北溪2號(hào)管道投產(chǎn)的可能性，將推動(dòng)價(jià)格下跌，盡管存儲(chǔ)需求(以及高碳成本)將使價(jià)格維持在15美元/百萬英熱以上。

二是在過去兩年里，天然氣儲(chǔ)存在歐洲的重要性得到了充分證明。

2020年，存儲(chǔ)能夠吸收大量過剩供應(yīng)，而在2021年，極高的天然氣價(jià)格阻礙了整個(gè)夏季天然氣購(gòu)入，使得該地區(qū)冬季庫(kù)存處于歷史低位。

歐洲天然氣研究首席分析師格雷厄姆?弗里德曼(Graham Freedman)表示，北半球異常寒冷的天氣可能再次導(dǎo)致歐洲供應(yīng)短缺。人們提出了一些問題，比如在所有天然氣來源中，庫(kù)存天然氣的重要性，以及庫(kù)存運(yùn)營(yíng)商和所有者在未來應(yīng)如何獲得資源。一項(xiàng)新的歐盟戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)存政策將要求對(duì)各國(guó)不同的法規(guī)進(jìn)行徹底改革。意大利和匈牙利等地已經(jīng)制定了成熟戰(zhàn)略，在供應(yīng)短缺情況下供應(yīng)市場(chǎng)，其他地方則沒有。因此，需要一個(gè)框架來確保整個(gè)行業(yè)的一致性。

三是在過去10年里，歐洲一直在從與石油相關(guān)的長(zhǎng)期合約轉(zhuǎn)向交易樞紐定價(jià)和現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)。但目前的危機(jī)表明，這可能存在缺陷，即在地區(qū)影響因素中，供應(yīng)的安全性和可承受性很重要。

今年歐洲將有約490億立方米進(jìn)口合同到期。其中，210億立方米將是俄羅斯管道合同。其中一些合同將不會(huì)延長(zhǎng)，如PGNIG與俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司(Gazprom)的100億立方米合同，因?yàn)椴ㄌm正在遠(yuǎn)離俄羅斯的天然氣。

歐洲天然氣研究研究分析師Penny Leake表示，隨著北溪2號(hào)管道啟動(dòng)，我們可能會(huì)看到一些新的長(zhǎng)期合同根據(jù)管道沿線走向而陸續(xù)簽訂。對(duì)俄羅斯長(zhǎng)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口的潛在擔(dān)憂，再加上對(duì)供應(yīng)安全和多樣化的危機(jī)引發(fā)擔(dān)憂，可能會(huì)推動(dòng)更多企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向液化天然氣合約。

到2025、2026年，石油指數(shù)、Henry Hub長(zhǎng)期液化天然氣合同的價(jià)格將較當(dāng)?shù)噩F(xiàn)貨價(jià)格有相當(dāng)大的折扣，這使它們成為歐洲企業(yè)一個(gè)有吸引力的選擇。但是，關(guān)于這些合同價(jià)格和結(jié)構(gòu)的談判將是復(fù)雜的。公用事業(yè)公司若要利用當(dāng)前現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格溢價(jià)，將需要承諾長(zhǎng)期合約，而現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)可能存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

四是能源危機(jī)讓人們注意到國(guó)內(nèi)天然氣生產(chǎn)的重要性，以及未來幾十年歐洲需要天然氣的前景。

創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的天然氣價(jià)格促使天然氣生產(chǎn)商優(yōu)先考慮能夠立即提供靈活性的天然氣開發(fā)，未來幾年致密氣市場(chǎng)前景可能會(huì)恢復(fù)對(duì)新天然氣供應(yīng)選擇的投資。

歐洲天然氣研究副研究員康納?麥金尼表示，一些運(yùn)營(yíng)商可能會(huì)認(rèn)為，對(duì)于他們的項(xiàng)目來說，這是“機(jī)不可失，時(shí)不再來”的，尤其是受到可能出現(xiàn)的高油價(jià)啟發(fā)。挪威去年提供臨時(shí)稅收方案將鼓勵(lì)更多外國(guó)投資，包括King Lear、Asterix、Dvalin North和Linnorm。通過增加Troll和Oseberg許可來最大化靈活產(chǎn)量也將是一個(gè)重點(diǎn)，一些運(yùn)營(yíng)商可能會(huì)優(yōu)先考慮天然氣銷售而不是天然氣回流，比如Gina Krog的挪國(guó)油。盡管由于英國(guó)ESG壓力，新的外國(guó)直接投資不確定性更大，但預(yù)計(jì)未來幾年持續(xù)的市場(chǎng)緊張可能會(huì)影響歐洲其他地區(qū)決策。在羅馬尼亞，自2019年以來，巨大的neptune Deep項(xiàng)目FID開發(fā)進(jìn)程一直被推遲，主要原因是財(cái)政和監(jiān)管狀況惡化。它有潛力在高原地區(qū)每年生產(chǎn)超過60億立方米天然氣，并將羅馬尼亞轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐粋€(gè)凈天然氣出口國(guó)，但要實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)，財(cái)政和監(jiān)管方面改善是必須的。高油價(jià)的長(zhǎng)期前景可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步鼓勵(lì)羅馬尼亞加快改革步伐。

五是2021年年底，歐盟委員會(huì)(European Commission)發(fā)布了一份新的歐盟分類提案，將高效、有增無減的燃?xì)獍l(fā)電廠歸類為過渡性投資，這可能是全球天然氣行業(yè)關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻。

專家顧問可在1月21日前提出反饋意見，這可能導(dǎo)致對(duì)擬議案文的修改。

歐洲天然氣研究副研究員克萊爾·斯賓塞表示，目前，金融和非金融投資者將能夠通過投資天然氣來提高企業(yè)的“綠色評(píng)分”，包括歐洲以外的地區(qū)，信息披露將是關(guān)鍵。其他發(fā)展類似分類的國(guó)家也會(huì)大膽地將天然氣納入其中，尤其是在煤炭仍占主導(dǎo)地位的亞洲市場(chǎng)。然而，歐盟承認(rèn)天然氣發(fā)電廠是一種過渡性投資，并不是天然氣行業(yè)的靈丹妙藥。

伍德麥肯茲預(yù)測(cè)，天然氣價(jià)格將需要下降，以適應(yīng)天然氣投資的增加。

到2030年，有建設(shè)許可證的設(shè)施擬議二氧化碳排放上限為270克/千瓦時(shí)，同時(shí)承諾到2026年使用至少30%的可再生或低碳?xì)怏w，到2035年使用100%，這意味著，如果燃?xì)獍l(fā)電廠被列為過渡發(fā)電廠，則需要隨著時(shí)間推移減少傳統(tǒng)天然氣使用。

即使歐盟將天然氣發(fā)電廠投資歸類為過渡投資，歐盟對(duì)天然氣的使用也將減少。

王佳晶 摘譯自 伍德麥肯茲

原文如下：

Wood Mackenzie: Key things to watch in the European gas market for 2022

The continent has been at the centre of a supply and demand crisis since last year, placing the security and flexibility of gas supply as well as its role in the energy transition top of the EU’s agenda.

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business released the Europe Gas: 5 things to look out for in 2022 report yesterday, highlighting key areas to watch which will shape the European and global gas markets for decades to come.

1. The start-up of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline bringing Russian gas to Germany might now be past 1Q22, meaning limited additional Russian supplies through the winter period, if any. 

At normal weather conditions and with low Russian imports, European storage inventories will dropbelow 15 billion m3 by the end of March – a record low.

Prices will eventually come down as spring approaches, but requirements to refill storage facilities will be high at 20 - 25 billion m3 more than this year.

Kateryna Filippenko, Principal Analyst, European gas research, said: 

Without additional Russian imports, the ability to refill depleted storage and to avoid a repeat of last year’s crisis will be limited

But Gazprom has so far been reluctant to make more gas available on the existing routes and the start-up of Nord Stream 2 remains the big unknown as Gazprom navigates regulatory approvals

Cold weather in Europe could exacerbate the situation further, adding up to 10 billion m3 to gas demand through the rest of the winter, pushing storage levels to zero unless more Russian gas is supplied, and Europe may have to tap into cushion gas to balance the market

Normal winter weather, including in Asia, and visibility on Nord Stream 2 commissioning would push prices down, although demand for storage (and high carbon costs) will maintain prices above $15 mmbtu

2. Over the last 2 years the importance of gas storage in Europe has been demonstrated to the full. 

In 2020, storage was able to absorb a large excess in supply whereas in 2021, extremely high gas pricing discouraged the injection of gas through summer leaving the region with historically low inventories for the winter.

Graham Freedman, principal analyst, European gas research, said: 

Exceptionally cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere could again leave Europe with a supply deficit

Questions are being raised about the importance of having gas storage in the overall mix of sources, and how storage operators and owners should be rewarded in the future

A new EU strategic storage policy will require an overhaul of regulations which significantly vary from country to country

Places such as Italy and Hungary already have well-established strategies to supply the market in the event of a supply shortage, others do not

Therefore, a framework is required to ensure consistency across the industry

3. In the last decade, Europe has been moving away from long-term oil-linked contracts towards hub pricing and spot market. 

But the current crisis has shown that this path can have drawbacks – security and affordability of supply foremost among those which could impact the region.

about 49 billion m3 of import contracts into Europe will expire this year. 

Out of these, 21 billion m3 will be Russian piped contracts. 

Some of these will not be extended such as PGNIG’s 10 billion m3 contract with Gazprom as Poland moves away from Russian gas.

Penny Leake, Research Analyst, European gas research, said:

With the possible start-up of Nord Stream 2, we may see some new long-term contracts signed along the pipeline’s route

Potential concerns over the long-term exposure to Russia, coupled with the crisis-driven worries over supply security and diversification, may push more players towards LNG contracting

Both oil-indexed and Henry Hub plus long-term LNG contracts will be at a considerable discount to local spot prices through to 2025/6, making them an attractive option for European players

But negotiations over the prices and structures of these contracts will be complicated

Utility companies will need to commit to a long-term duration contract if they are to take advantage of the current spot price premium, which could prove risky

4.The energy crisis has drawn attention to the importance of domestic production and the prospect of Europe requiring gas for decades to come.

Record prices pushed gas producers to prioritise gas developments that can provide immediate flexibility, and the prospect of tight gas market in the coming years may revive investments into new gas supply options.

Conner McKinney, Research Associate, European gas research said: 

Some operators may see this time as ‘now or never’ for their projects, particularly inspired by the possibility of high prices. Temporary tax packages offered in Norway last year will encourage more FIDs including King Lear, Asterix, Dvalin North and Linnorm

Maximising flexible production through increased permits for Troll and Oseberg will also be a focus and some operators may prioritise gas sales over gas reinjection, like Equinor at Gina Krog

While new FIDs are more uncertain due to ESG pressures in the UK, the sustained market tightness expected over the next few years may impact decision-making in other parts of Europe

In Romania, progress towards FID for the giant Neptun Deep project has been delayed since 2019, not least by fiscal and regulatory deterioration

It has the potential to produce more than 6 billion m3 a year at plateau and transform Romania to a net gas exporter, but for this to materialise, fiscal and regulatory improvements are required

The prolonged prospect of high prices could further encourage Romania’s government to speed up change

5. At the end of last year, the European Commission published a new EU taxonomy proposal classifying efficient unabated gas-fired power plants as transitional investments, which could be a moment of truth for the global gas industry.

Expert advisers have until 21 January to provide feedback which may result in changes to the proposed text.

Claire Spencer, Research Associate, European gas research, stated:

As it stands, financial and non-financial investors will be able to increase their corporate ‘green scoring’ by investing in gas, including outside Europe, disclosure will be key

Other countries developing similar taxonomies would be emboldened to include gas too, particularly in Asian markets where coal still dominates

However, the EU recognition of gas power plants as a transitional investment is no panacea for the gas industry

Wood Mackenzie predicts that gas prices will need to come down to accommodate increased investment in gas use. 

The proposed CO2 emission cap of 270 Gr. per kWh for facilities that have a construction permit by 2030, alongside the commitment to use at least 30% of renewable or low carbon gas by 2026 and 100% by 2035, means that the use of conventional natural gas would need to reduce over time if a gas-fired power plant is to be classified as transitional. 

The use of unabated natural gas in the EU is set to decline, even if the EU classifies investments in gas-fired plants as transitional investments.